In the turbulent whirlwind of a presidential contest cycle, Senate races often languish in the shadows, overlooked until Election Day looms near. Yet, with the advent of the second fundraising quarter, a flood of fresh names emerges, some already declared, others biding their time, all poised to leave an indelible mark on the 2024 race for chamber control and the dynamics of power in 2025’s presidential administration.
The swelling ranks of candidates launching their campaigns this month usher in the era of real and fierce competition, particularly within the Republican camp. The top three seats most likely to change hands offer the GOP a tantalizing chance to secure the one or two seats needed to govern the chamber, their destiny intertwined with the presidential outcome. CNN’s rankings, drawing upon fundraising figures and historical data, paint a picture of unfolding drama.
In West Virginia, the GOP primary, already simmering between the governor and a congressman, intensifies with the thundering presence of outside groups, like the formidable Club for Growth’s political arm, ready to pour millions into the fray. A marquee battle ensues, pitting the national GOP’s establishment forces against the unyielding conservatism of an external group. Montana and Nevada witness a similar saga, where the National Republican Senatorial Committee tests its novel strategy of taking sides in primaries.
No discourse on Republican primaries can evade the ever-present specter of former President Donald Trump. Since 2016, loyalty to him has served as the litmus test for the GOP, oftentimes outweighing mere ideological conservatism. Yet, allegiance to his election conspiracy theories has at times cost Republicans dearly in general elections, as the 2022 midterms painfully demonstrated.
Montana’s Sen. Steve Daines, as chairman of the NRSC, pledges his endorsement to Trump, who, at least for now, plays along with the party’s dynamics. CNN reports that two House Freedom Caucus members, previously backed by the former president in West Virginia and Montana, have been informed of Trump’s withheld support for their Senate aspirations. In Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale, though yet to announce his campaign, stands prepared to challenge the NRSC’s preferred candidate.
Amidst the primary drama, Pennsylvania breathes a collective sigh of relief as election denier Doug Mastriano, fresh from a 15-point gubernatorial defeat, decides against running. Instead, the spotlight now shines on Dave McCormick, whose path appears clearer, propelling the Keystone State one spot higher in the list of potential flips.
An offensive opportunity presents itself to the Republicans on the Senate map. Democrats currently hold seven of the ten seats most likely to change hands next year, while one independent and two Republicans complete the mix. The distribution, while unlikely to undergo significant alterations, promises an evolving ranking in the months to follow.
1.West Virginia
Incumbent: Democrat Joe Manchin
Sen. Joe Manchin finds himself at the center of attention following his sojourn to New Hampshire, sparking speculations of a potential third-party presidential bid. This moderate Democrat, viewed as the sole contender capable of securing the Senate seat in a state Trump triumphed in by double digits, remains indecisive about seeking reelection until the year’s end. Nevertheless, a surge in fundraising during the second quarter suggests the incumbent might be gearing up for another political duel. Presently, he keeps his options open, keenly observing the sizzling Republican primary.
National Republicans firmly stand behind Gov. Jim Justice, a Democrat-turned-Republican, whose party allegiance aligns with the state’s partisan realignment. His opponent, Rep. Alex Mooney, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, enjoys robust backing from the formidable Club for Growth Action and an allied super PAC, amassing a remarkable $13.6 million for his campaign. Although Justice outpaced Mooney in fundraising during the second quarter, he trails in cash on hand and is likely to receive ample external support. The esteemed governor, an ally of Trump, emerges as the more formidable contender in the eyes of national Republicans, who reckon him better equipped to take on Manchin. Democratic attacks on Justice only serve to affirm this conviction. Mooney, a seasoned five-term House member with prior experience in the Maryland legislature, lacks the same statewide recognition as his adversary.
Crucial to victory in a state where Trump triumphed by nearly 40 points in 2020 would be the coveted endorsement of the former president. Confidential reports indicate that Trump privately signaled to Mooney that his support might not be forthcoming. Regardless of which Republican candidate emerges as the victor, Manchin, who secured reelection by a mere 3 points in 2018 against a lackluster opponent, will undoubtedly face a daunting race if he chooses to run. West Virginia, hailed as the “most likely to flip” territory, shall remain a coveted prize for aspirants seeking to alter the political landscape.
2. Montana
Incumbent: Democrat Jon Tester
In the unfolding political landscape, National Republicans have set their sights on a candidate they believe can unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, in what could be their second-best pick-up opportunity. The emergence of former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, who launched his campaign in late June, has garnered swift support from prominent figures such as Gov. Greg Gianforte, Rep. Ryan Zinke, and senators from across the nation. Although some of these endorsements may not resonate as strongly with Montana voters, they appear to target Rep. Matt Rosendale, who previously lost to Tester in 2018 and is anticipated to announce his own Senate bid.
Rosendale’s fundraising figures for the second quarter, hovering around $443,000, may fall short of the requirements for a top-tier race. Nevertheless, he is likely to possess name recognition from his previous statewide endeavors, and the backing of the political arm of the Club for Growth could provide crucial assistance, potentially setting the stage for a clash between conservative anti-tax advocates and the establishment GOP. However, the Club for Growth’s commitment to Rosendale appears somewhat wavering in recent times. Like in West Virginia, the former president, for the time being, seems to cooperate with Senate leadership. Despite campaigning for Rosendale in the 2018 race, Trump conveyed to the congressman that his support would not be forthcoming, as reported by CNN.
This anticipated contentious primary would also serve as a litmus test for the national GOP’s ability to secure their favored candidate’s position in the general election. Democrats are already seizing on Sheehy’s wealthy transplant status and questioning his credentials as a rancher, using an attack strategy that proved effective against Rosendale five years ago. Tester, with his working dirt farmer image, has historically defied the state’s partisanship, and his impressive fundraising of $5 million during the second quarter serves as a testament to his formidable position.
3.Ohio
Incumbent: Democrat Sherrod Brown
In the fray of the Republican primary to challenge Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, another contender emerges as Ohio Secretary of State, Frank LaRose, throws his hat into the ring. Unlike in other Trump states with Democratic incumbents, national Republicans currently maintain a neutral stance in this primary.
Businessman Bernie Moreno, enjoying warm nods from Trump and backed by Sen. J.D. Vance, displays his fundraising prowess, amassing nearly $2.3 million in the second quarter. State Sen. Matt Dolan, adopting a conservative stance outside the Trump lane, enters the race after finishing third in last year’s primary. Although his positioning remains to be tested, Dolan’s ample resources, thanks to his family’s ownership of the Cleveland Guardians baseball team, allow him to make a formidable effort, as evidenced by his TV ads touching on border issues and garnering sheriff support. He has injected $1 million of his own funds into the campaign and raised $320,000 in the second quarter.
While LaRose may lack personal resources, his statewide recognition as a reelected official by a 20-point margin in the previous year gives him an edge. In a noteworthy move, he reversed his stance on endorsing a presidential candidate, citing his role as an election official, and declared his support for the former president during a dinner at Trump’s Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club with Ohio lawmakers. Acknowledging that they don’t agree on every point of style or substance, LaRose nonetheless finds common ground with Trump. Additionally, he assumes a prominent role in Ohio’s ongoing battle over abortion rights, a matter that could bolster his standing in the GOP primary. LaRose actively promotes an August ballot measure aiming to raise the bar for amending the state constitution, a move aimed at countering another November ballot measure that seeks to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution.
On the other side of the spectrum, Sen. Sherrod Brown showcases his financial prowess, raising $5 million in the second quarter. With a strong economic populist stance and a track record of success, Brown remains a formidable candidate in Ohio’s increasingly rightward-shifting political landscape, ensuring a highly competitive race, regardless of the Republican nominee.
4. Arizona
Incumbent: Independent Kyrsten Sinema
Arizona, a state of political intrigue, leaves strategists in a perplexing state, eliciting little more than a mere shrug in response. Amidst the highly competitive atmosphere, the foremost enigma revolves around the potential reelection bid of the incumbent, Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. As she faces a left-leaning challenger in the form of Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego, his formidable campaign gathers momentum with a remarkable $3.1 million raised in the second quarter, nearly doubling Sinema’s fundraising efforts. Yet, the incumbent maintains a substantial cash-on-hand advantage, boasting an impressive $10.8 million in reserves.
On the Republican front, relative quiet reigns since Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, amassing $600,000 during the quarter, declared his bid earlier this year. All eyes, however, remain fixed on Kari Lake, the unsuccessful nominee in the 2022 gubernatorial race, her potential Senate run the subject of speculation. Amidst a year spent challenging her 2022 loss, Lake aligns herself ever closer to the Trump camp, a move that resonates with National Republicans. Nevertheless, Lake’s election conspiracy rhetoric finds little favor among Republicans in a state narrowly flipped by President Joe Biden in 2020. Though she has met with the NRSC, her public stance may yet evolve. The importance of focusing on the future, as articulated by Daines, has left an impression, even as Republicans currently avoid taking sides.
The prospect of a three-way race looms, with Gallego and Sinema possibly dividing votes, creating an opportunity for Lake’s advancement. Yet, in this recently purple state veering towards the red, Arizona’s ranking remains steady at No. 4, its candidate field shrouded in uncertainty, and the political terrain cloaked in intrigue.
5. Nevada
Incumbent: Democrat Jacky Rosen
The Republican landscape in Arizona has welcomed the entry of retired Army Captain Sam Brown into the race, poised to challenge Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen. Swiftly endorsing Brown, Daines wasted no time and sent out a fundraising email soon after Brown’s mid-July announcement. However, Brown will not be the sole contender in this political contest.
Former state Assemblyman Jim Marchant, despite facing losses in last year’s secretary of state race and a general election for the US House in 2020, is now in the fray for the GOP Senate nomination. His campaign swiftly emphasized his commendable primary track record as he criticized Brown’s entrance into the race, pointing out that Brown suffered a significant defeat in the Senate nomination by more than 20 points in the previous year. Marchant’s fundraising efforts in the second quarter amounted to a modest $112,000, of which more than half was expended, leaving him with a meager $43,000.
National Republicans perceive Marchant’s lackluster fundraising and embrace of Trump’s election conspiracy theories as potential liabilities. Nevertheless, the true test lies with primary voters, whose sentiments may diverge from the party’s national outlook. Notably, the Koch-backed outside group, Americans for Prosperity Action, backed Brown last week, signaling the importance of this race as a key indicator of the extent to which the national GOP will support their preferred candidates in securing the nomination.
Yet, even if successful, Brown, who relocated to the state in 2018, remains relatively untested. Bearing the scars of a severe injury sustained from a roadside bomb explosion in Afghanistan, Brown emphasizes his military service as he attempts to draw connections between Rosen, who served one term in the US House before ascending to the Senate in 2018, and the intricacies of Washington, DC. Rosen, on the other hand, displayed formidable fundraising prowess, amassing $2.7 million in the second quarter, as she readies herself for a second term in a state carried by President Biden by a narrow margin of about two points in 2020.
6. Wisconsin
Incumbent: Democrat Tammy Baldwin
The Wisconsin Senate race presents a conundrum for Republicans, as they continue to lack a top contender to take on Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, particularly after Rep. Mike Gallagher declined to enter the race. Nevertheless, their gaze is fixed on two businessmen with potential self-funding capabilities: Eric Hovde, who previously lost the Republican Senate nomination in 2012, and Scott Mayer, a political newcomer. Yet, Rep. Tom Tiffany’s modest second-quarter fundraising of $114,000 does not suggest he is preparing for a statewide run. Additionally, the controversial former Milwaukee County Sheriff, David Clarke, who polled as the best-known potential GOP candidate in a Marquette University Law School Poll last month, remains undecided. Clarke’s nomination could present challenges for the GOP in a state that President Biden narrowly carried.
At present, Sen. Tammy Baldwin enjoys a relatively unchallenged position in the race. Her second-quarter fundraising of $3.3 million solidifies her financial edge, though it may dissipate if she faces a formidable self-funded opponent. The Marquette poll indicates that among registered voters, 40% view her favorably, while 37% hold unfavorable views, leaving 22% without a strong opinion. This suggests she has an opportunity to reintroduce herself to the electorate as she seeks a third term. Though her narrowly positive favorability rating may not appear overwhelmingly impressive for a two-term incumbent, it is worth noting that GOP Sen. Ron Johnson faced a more challenging situation at this point in the cycle two years ago, yet managed to secure reelection last fall.
7. Pennsylvania
Incumbent: Democrat Bob Casey
In this month’s rankings, Pennsylvania ascends a notch, and Republicans breathe a sigh of relief as state Sen. Doug Mastriano, a prominent election denier and unsuccessful 2022 gubernatorial nominee, opts not to vie for the GOP Senate nomination against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey. The path is now clearer for Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, whose significant personal resources present an enticing prospect for the GOP’s bid to unseat a three-term incumbent hailing from a well-known Pennsylvania family. (Casey’s father was a two-term governor.)
McCormick, with his capacity for self-funding, appears in no rush to announce his candidacy, though he has already garnered an endorsement from Americans for Prosperity Action. Despite the lack of a competitive primary, he may encounter challenges stemming from his previous race, during which he veered right in pursuit of Trump’s endorsement – a potential liability that could hamper his appeal among suburban voters in a general election.
Nonetheless, Casey faces a tougher election compared to his 2018 victory, where he secured reelection with a 13-point margin against a hard-line congressman. Demonstrating financial prowess, he raised a substantial $4 million in the second quarter and, in his official capacity, has been vocal about countering China’s “economic aggression” – a subject likely to feature prominently in the upcoming race if McCormick decides to run. The state’s competitiveness is underscored by President Biden’s recurrent visits since taking office, having carried Pennsylvania by a slim margin in 2020 – a fact accentuating the crucial turf of the upcoming 2024 contest.
8. Michigan
Incumbent: Democrat Debbie Stabenow (retiring)
Michigan, an open Senate seat with Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow retiring, slips down one position in this month’s rankings, making way for Pennsylvania to gain ground. Democrats, however, maintain a sense of confidence in this race, buoyed in part by their strong performance in the state during the previous fall. The entry of Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a seasoned candidate and formidable fundraiser, further bolsters their optimism. Slotkin’s second-quarter fundraising of $2.8 million underscores her financial prowess and adds to the party’s reassurance.
Republicans, on the other hand, have yet to secure a top candidate, but they are hopeful that either New York Stock Exchange Vice Chairman John Tuttle or former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has been exploring a presidential bid, will step into the race later this summer. The potential inclusion of former GOP Rep. Peter Meijer is also a consideration, though his previous primary loss over his vote to impeach Trump raises doubts about his prospects of securing the Republican nomination.
Slotkin’s advantage is clear, but she faces competition in the primary arena. Actor Hill Harper, renowned for his roles in “CSI: NY” and “The Good Doctor,” entered the fray earlier this month, portraying his political inexperience as a strength. In an interview with Laura Coates on “CNN Tonight” on the day of his announcement, he invoked his Harvard Law School classmate and former President Barack Obama, who successfully made it to the Senate via an open-seat primary. Harper, however, acknowledged the formidable challenge posed by taking on Slotkin, stating, “It’s a massive challenge.”
9. Texas
Incumbent: Republican Ted Cruz
The Democratic pursuit to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz has intensified with the emergence of not one but two prominent candidates. History has shown that a formidable name alone is insufficient, yet Democrats find encouragement in Rep. Colin Allred’s impressive fundraising achievements, surpassing the early-cycle financial standing of Beto O’Rourke, who made a bid against Cruz in 2018. Allred’s substantial haul of $6.2 million, supplemented by a transfer of over $2 million from his House campaign, underscores his capacity to garner financial support. Notably, the former NFL player embraces a moderate stance, having secured endorsements from both the Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO. His initial victory in 2018 involved unseating a Republican to earn his place in the House.
In addition to Allred, State Sen. Roland Gutierrez enters the race, hailing from Uvalde and championing his leadership in the aftermath of a tragic 2022 school shooting. He voices concern over the neglect faced by rural Texas. With Trump’s six-point victory in Texas, a state that has eluded Democrats, the road ahead will undoubtedly be an uphill challenge in the forthcoming year. However, the presence of competitive candidates, particularly Allred with his formidable fundraising prowess, renders Texas as the more compelling of the two Democratic offensive opportunities on the list.
10. Florida
Incumbent: Republican Rick Scott
Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters
Florida stands as the sole remaining realistic opportunity for Democrats to unseat a Republican, but the path demands a formidable candidate with ample resources. The financial might of GOP Sen. Rick Scott, bolstered by his capacity to replenish his coffers with personal funds, presents a formidable challenge, particularly in a state that has veered towards the Republican camp in recent times. Nevertheless, the prospect of a strong Democrat harnessing the dynamics of a presidential year could elevate this contest to a riveting race.
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