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Ted Cruz Faces Tight Senate Race Against Colin Allred in Texas

Senator Ted Cruz faces a tough re-election race in Texas against Democrat Colin Allred. Texas’ shifting demographics and hot-button issues like abortion could play a decisive role.

Sen. Ted Cruz speaks during a business roundtable event in El Paso, Texas, on Sept. 5, 2024. Cruz isn’t entirely shying away from all the hot-button issues for which he’s become known. | Daniella Diaz/POLITICO

Senator Ted Cruz is once again fighting for his political future as he campaigns for re-election in Texas. Despite his reputation as a hardline conservative, Cruz is now emphasizing his bipartisan accomplishments as he seeks another six years in Washington. But with Texas’ shifting demographics, Cruz is facing a formidable challenge from Rep. Colin Allred, a Democrat who’s gaining momentum in the race.

Cruz’s Bipartisan Pitch

At a campaign stop in El Paso, Cruz said, “What is new is not that I’m passing bipartisan legislation that helps produce jobs in Texas. I’ve been doing that since the day I arrived in the Senate. What is new is we’re finally getting the press to report on it.”

Cruz is highlighting bipartisan achievements, including trade-promoting bridges across the Rio Grande and tax relief for hurricane victims. He also supported the recent FAA Reauthorization Act and efforts to protect in-vitro fertilization, an attempt to soften Democratic attacks on his record on abortion rights.

Despite these claims of bipartisanship, Cruz is still leaning into hot-button issues. His latest TV ads focus on Allred’s votes in Washington against Republican-backed amendments that sought to ban transgender women from playing in women’s sports.

Allred’s Challenge

On the Democratic side, Colin Allred is making a strong push to unseat Cruz. A former NFL player and Dallas congressman, Allred is leveraging issues like abortion rights in a post-Dobbs Texas, where the state’s extreme abortion ban has placed many families in difficult situations.

“This is a very different time, and I’m a very different candidate,” Allred said at a campaign stop in Brownsville, Texas. “We are now living under an extreme abortion ban that is placing Texas families in horrific conditions.”

Allred is also using Cruz’s infamous 2021 Cancun trip as a major talking point. During a deadly winter storm that left millions of Texans without power, Cruz fled to the beach in Mexico — a moment that even Texas Republicans criticized as a public relations disaster.

Texas’ Changing Political Landscape

Texas is still a Republican-leaning state, but its growing diversity, along with urban and suburban expansion, presents new challenges for the GOP. Cruz narrowly won re-election in 2018 against Beto O’Rourke by just three points, and recent polling shows him ahead of Allred by a similar margin.

In contrast, Texas’ senior senator, John Cornyn, won his 2020 re-election by a more comfortable 10-point margin. Unlike Cruz, Cornyn supported bipartisan legislation like the CHIPS and Science Act and the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, while Cruz voted against them.

Campaign Cash and Outside Influence

Allred has outraised Cruz in the race, spending $26.2 million on general election TV ads compared to Cruz’s $14.3 million. This financial advantage has led outside conservative groups like the Club for Growth-linked Win It Back PAC to jump into the race to support Cruz.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has also indicated they will invest in Texas, although it remains unclear whether the engagement will be as intense as in other competitive races.

Cruz’s Path Forward

As the election draws near, Cruz’s campaign is working hard to maintain his support base. According to Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), chair of the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, “Ted Cruz’s pre-2024 image hasn’t proved to be a liability so far. He’s tracking right with President Trump’s numbers.”

With Texas trending toward purple, the Cruz-Allred race will be one to watch closely as we head into the final weeks before the 2024 election.

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