Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te, of Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim wave as they hold a press conference, following the victory in the presidential elections, in Taipei, Taiwan January 13, 2024. REUTERS/Ann Wang
The president-elect of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, may face a challenging tenure marked by the absence of a parliamentary majority, opposition calls to revisit a contentious service trade agreement with China, and the persistent threat of military action from Beijing.
Lai, representing the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), secured victory with a comfortable margin, although with less than half of the total votes. However, his party lost control of the parliament, a crucial institution for legislative and financial approvals. Lai is scheduled to assume office on May 20.
China swiftly emphasized that the majority of voters did not support Lai, asserting that the DPP does not represent the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan. While not directly naming Lai, the Taiwan Affairs Office argued that the DPP’s stance diverges from the broader sentiment in Taiwan.
Concerns have been raised by Lin Fei-fan, a former DPP deputy secretary general and current member of a party think tank, who expressed apprehension about the challenges the new government might encounter, particularly in relation to China. Opposition lawmakers, constituting a legislative majority, could potentially engage in increased exchanges with China and advocate for the revival of a controversial service trade pact shelved by Taiwan a decade ago amid mass protests.
The largest opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT), and the smaller Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) campaigned to restart the trade services pact. However, it remains uncertain if these parties will collaborate in the parliament. The defeated KMT candidate, Hou Yu-ih, refrained from directly addressing the possibility of collaboration but emphasized the responsibility of opposition parties.
Despite Lai’s calls for dialogue, China has rejected them, citing differences in sovereignty claims. Lai and the DPP reject Beijing’s claims, asserting that only the people of Taiwan can determine their future.
Hu Xijin, a prominent Chinese commentator, downplayed the significance of Taiwanese elections, asserting that the mainland’s strength and the will of 1.4 billion people to reunify with Taiwan render the election outcomes inconsequential. China framed the vote as a choice between war and peace, urging electors to make the “correct choice” without endorsing specific candidates.
Lai I-chung, president of the Taipei-based think-tank, the Prospect Foundation, interpreted China’s response as an attempt to justify its approach to Taiwan, maintaining a hardline stance. He anticipates continued tension, although he does not foresee an escalation into conflict.
Over the past year and a half, China has conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, and its forces regularly operate in the Taiwan Strait. China has also imposed restrictions on trade with Taiwan, which the DPP has labeled as election interference, a claim dismissed by China as DPP “dirty tricks.”
Su Tzu-yun, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research, anticipates that Chinese President Xi Jinping will observe Lai’s statements leading up to his inauguration in May, as the Chinese Communist Party prioritizes avoiding political risk.
China, which considers Taiwan its “sacred” territory, has not renounced the use of force to bring it under its control. Victor Gao, a professor at Soochow University in China, emphasized China’s patience in promoting peaceful reunification but noted zero tolerance for Taiwan independence.
China’s military has yet to comment on the election results. The Eastern Theatre Command, responsible for the area around Taiwan, conducted live fire drills with missile boats but did not specify the location. The command highlighted the historical context of previous naval battles, emphasizing the bravery of its troops
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