A recent survey of Republican county chairs conducted by Seth Masket, a political science professor, reveals a notable shift in support toward former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential campaign. The ongoing survey, tracking the “invisible primary” for the Republican presidential nomination, indicates that Trump’s lead among grassroots leaders has solidified, with increasing numbers committing to supporting him.
Initially, the survey showed a competitive landscape with a significant percentage of respondents remaining undecided. However, the most recent results demonstrate a 10-point surge in support for Trump, reaching 37 percent, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis experienced a four-point decline to 9 percent. Importantly, the percentage of uncommitted county chairs decreased from around 50 percent to 39 percent.
The survey explores chairs’ considerations regarding candidates, and Trump has seen a substantial increase in the percentage of chairs considering him, rising from 52 to 64 percent. Meanwhile, DeSantis, who had consistently held the top position in previous surveys, dropped to 55 percent.
The survey also gauges the candidates whom county chairs do not want to see become the party’s nominee. While former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie remains at the top of this measure, Trump’s negatives decreased from 44 percent in August to 29 percent in October. The overall trend indicates a consolidating support for Trump among GOP county chairs.
Although DeSantis and Nikki Haley saw some improvement in their standings, Trump’s significant gains in both positive and negative perceptions within the party are noteworthy. The survey suggests that a crucial segment of the Republican Party, represented by grassroots leaders, is increasingly aligning behind Trump as the 2024 campaign progresses.
While the campaign is not over, and the next survey is scheduled for December, these findings underscore the challenge for other candidates to break through the growing support for Trump within the party’s ranks.
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