South Carolina’s Democratic Primary Turnout Raises Questions About First-in-the-Nation Status

In the recent Democratic primary in South Carolina, President Joe Biden secured a decisive victory, but concerns are emerging about the state’s claim to maintain its first-in-the-nation status. Despite a turnout of 131,000 voters, only 7,000 more than New Hampshire’s smaller primary, South Carolina faces challenges in justifying its lead-off position for the 2028 primary. The state’s “We Go First” campaign centered around giving Black voters an early say in picking the nominee.

Key Points:

1. Turnout Comparison: South Carolina’s turnout of 131,000 voters is only marginally higher than New Hampshire’s 124,000 votes, raising questions about the state’s argument for maintaining its first-in-the-nation primary status.
2. Biden’s Influence: President Biden, who sought first-in-the-nation status for South Carolina, played a significant role in the state’s campaign. However, the absence of a competitive primary, with nominal challenges, might have contributed to a less robust turnout.
3. Delegate Dilemma: Rep. Jim Clyburn suggested returning delegates to New Hampshire, potentially undermining South Carolina’s claim to the lead-off position. This proposal, if accepted, could restore New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status for 2028.
4. Uncontested Primary: The uncontested nature of the primary, with President Biden facing minimal challenges, could have impacted voter turnout. The state party downplayed turnout benchmarks and emphasized the significance of being the first state in the Democratic primary.
5. Challenges in Measurement: Judging the performance of South Carolina’s primary is challenging, as it was uncontested, and there are no comparable data points for an incumbent president’s reelection year.
6. Historical Context: South Carolina had never held its primary during an incumbent president’s reelection before, making it difficult to compare the current turnout to previous years.
7. Black Voter Enthusiasm: A South Carolina Democratic official highlighted a statistic indicating 77% of early voters were Black, demonstrating increased participation compared to four years ago. This contrasts with New Hampshire, where the Black population is only about 2%.

Conclusion: South Carolina’s Democratic primary turnout, despite a Biden victory, has sparked debates about its first-in-the-nation status. The comparable turnout to New Hampshire and the suggestion to return delegates to the Northeastern state add complexity to the state’s future role in the Democratic primary process.