In my last article, I wrote about 9/11, which I consider one of the largest terrorist incidents in world history, and a series of events that unfolded afterward. In this article, let’s start from the U.S. presidential elections, visit the Middle East, and then Türkiye, to analyze the potential impact of the election results on our region and, ultimately, Türkiye’s place in the global balance of power.
An Unchanging Strategy in a Changing Leadership
The United States, the world’s largest economy and most powerful military, is headed for a presidential election. After a long and arduous campaign, we are nearing the end. Polls tell a lot, but no one can know the outcome until it happens. Either Trump or Harris will soon take the U.S. presidential seat, and it is evident they will each pursue different paths with different methods. However, regardless of who wins, there won’t be a drastic shift in U.S. foreign policy goals. This is actually what keeps the U.S. powerful. Let’s delve into this a bit more:
When Trump was elected president, he was eager to withdraw the U.S. military from the Middle East, but he was unsuccessful. Even if all past U.S. presidents were to gather in the White House and declare, “We’ll pull our military out of the Middle East,” they still couldn’t achieve this. The U.S. military presence in the Middle East exceeds even the president’s ability to take unilateral action because those who dominate the Middle East have a say in global politics. This is fundamentally due to the region’s energy resources, particularly oil reserves. Controlling energy resources is an extremely strategic asset, influencing not only economic power but also political and military power. For this reason, no matter who is elected president, the U.S. is unlikely to relinquish its interests in the Middle East. Whether Trump or Harris takes office will not alter this reality. The U.S. will maintain its military presence in the Middle East to ensure energy security, support allies, and maintain its influence in the global order.
The Energy Game: U.S. and China in the Middle East
With the rise of powers like China and Russia, the U.S. interest in energy traffic has become even more critical. The U.S. uses its presence in the Middle East not only to further its own interests but also as leverage against its rivals. One of the primary goals of this presence is to limit China’s access to Middle Eastern energy resources. For China’s continually expanding economy to remain sustainable, access to energy sources is essential—a matter of vital importance. To this end, China and Iran signed an agreement in 2021, most of which remains undisclosed, that included substantial infrastructure investments by China in Iran in exchange for cheaper oil from Iran. China’s 2021 move with Iran underscored its interest in, and dependence on, the region’s energy resources.
The last straw was China’s interest in Israeli ports. At this point, a powerful actor moved in, using Hamas to lay the groundwork for Israeli actions in the region. Israel struck indiscriminately, hitting children and civilians, even coming to the brink of regional conflict with Iran. China, aiming to lower regional tensions, attempted to mediate between Hamas and Israel, but soon after, Hamas leader Haniyeh was killed in a ‘safe house’ in Iran. In short, the deep-seated U.S. had no tolerance for China’s presence in the region!
Since U.S. President Richard Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, American capital has flowed into China, propelling the expansion of its economy to the point that China has now become the largest global threat facing the U.S. Consequently, the U.S.’s priority goal is to eliminate, or at the very least, minimize China’s presence in the Middle East. The U.S. does not want to waste more time in the Middle East; it wants to establish its preferred order there quickly and shift focus to the Asia-Pacific region, its primary target.
Türkiye’s Pivotal Role: Stability or Instability?
At this critical juncture, Türkiye stands out as a pivotal player in establishing stability in the Middle East, given its strategic position in energy transfer routes and logistics. Stability or instability in this region hinges on Türkiye’s decisions. Should Türkiye demonstrate a willingness to take responsibility for the region, it is clear that the global balance will adjust accordingly. This does not mean “Accept America’s terms!” Never! When the time is right, the U.S. will undoubtedly test Türkiye’s weak spots. However, Türkiye’s decisions have the potential to drastically shift global balances, and this is certain. With this awareness, we must prepare the infrastructure, human resources, and economic system to walk toward the future on our own way.
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