Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Estonian President Alar Karis attend a joint press conference in Tallinn, Estonia January 11, 2024. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service issued a report on Tuesday indicating that Russia is preparing for a potential military confrontation with the West within the coming decade. The assessment suggests that Russia’s intentions could be deterred by a corresponding build-up of armed forces by Western nations.
Citing a planned doubling of Russian forces along its border with NATO members Finland and the Baltic States (Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia), the chief of the Estonian intelligence service, Kaupo Rosin, stated that Russia appears to have committed to a long-term strategy of confrontation. Rosin further indicated that the Kremlin may anticipate a conflict with NATO within the next ten years.
Rosin emphasized that while a military incursion by Russia in the near future is deemed highly improbable, ongoing Russian military commitments in Ukraine contribute to this assessment. He also noted that the likelihood of such an incursion would be significantly higher in the absence of adequate preparation by Western nations.
In response to the perceived threat, Estonia and other Baltic States have increased their military expenditures to surpass 2% of their respective gross domestic products (GDP) since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Additionally, NATO allies have bolstered their presence in the region. Germany, for instance, plans to deploy 4,800 combat-ready troops to the area by 2027, marking its first permanent foreign deployment since World War Two. Rosin commended NATO and its allies for taking steps to counter the perceived Russian threat.
Regarding the situation in Ukraine, Rosin does not foresee a significant Russian advance prior to the country’s presidential election in March. He pointed out that such an advancement would necessitate a substantial mobilization of additional Russian troops.
Addressing comments made by U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump regarding defense commitments to NATO allies, Rosin remarked that such statements are unconstructive.
Finally, Rosin highlighted Russia’s superior ability to supply ammunition to its troops compared to Ukraine’s capacity. He cautioned that without sustained or increased Western support, Ukraine is unlikely to alter the battlefield situation significantly.
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