Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is emerging as a formidable independent candidate for the 2024 presidential election, causing concern among both major political parties. His iconic name, combined with widespread dissatisfaction with the likely major party nominees, positions him to potentially garner the largest share of the vote for an independent candidate since Ross Perot in 1992.
Rising Support for Kennedy
Recent polling data indicates growing support for Kennedy as a third-party candidate. Two separate polls conducted in recent weeks have shown Kennedy with 14 percent support when included as a third option alongside President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
Impact on Both Major Parties
With a potentially tight race ahead, both major parties are apprehensive about how Kennedy’s candidacy might influence the election. Allies of President Biden have labeled his independent run as “dangerous.” The Republican National Committee (RNC), recognizing Kennedy’s appeal to certain segments of its base, is highlighting his liberal policy positions to counter his influence on the right.
Unpredictable Nature of Third-party Campaigns
Third-party candidacies can be unpredictable, and Kennedy’s anti-vaccination stance may draw more support from Republicans than Democrats. While some Democrats are dissatisfied with Biden’s campaign, Kennedy may not be the candidate to sway them. Instead, his candidacy could potentially siphon votes from Trump.
Financial Resources and Credibility
Kennedy’s candidacy benefits from substantial financial resources, including support from a super PAC named American Values 2024, primarily funded by conservative donor Timothy Mellon and billionaire Gavin de Becker. The super PAC had nearly $10 million in funds as of the end of June. While Kennedy may trail Biden and Trump in fundraising, his wealthy backers could help narrow the gap in the coming months.
Qualification for Debates
Starting with 14 percent support, Kennedy is in proximity to the 15 percent average polling threshold used by the Commission on Presidential Debates in previous elections to determine whether independent candidates can participate in debates. No third-party candidate has participated in a debate since Perot in 1992.
The Debate Dilemma
However, the possibility of debates next year remains uncertain. The RNC has expressed its intention not to participate in debates run by the nonpartisan commission. This stance could lead to negotiations over new debate rules, including those for third-party candidates.
Historical Context
Third-party voting tends to surge when both major-party candidates are unpopular. With President Biden and former President Trump collectively less popular than Trump and Hillary Clinton were in 2016, the 2024 election may witness increased third-party voting.
Democratic Dissatisfaction
Kennedy’s appeal to Democratic-leaning voters lies in their lack of enthusiasm for Biden’s re-election campaign. A significant number of 2020 Biden voters are open to supporting other candidates. Polls have shown Kennedy drawing support from various voter groups, including Democrats, Republicans, and independents.
Challenges Within Democratic Base
Kennedy’s positions, particularly his anti-vaccination stance, are at odds with many Democratic voters who strongly support vaccinations. This misalignment likely contributed to his failed primary campaign against Biden.
Opportunity Among Republicans
While Kennedy may not significantly sway Democratic voters away from Biden, he might have room to grow among Republicans. His favorable rating among Republicans exceeds that among Democrats, making him potentially appealing to right-leaning voters.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent presidential candidacy is gaining momentum, raising concerns for both major political parties. His potential to draw votes from various groups, coupled with his substantial financial resources, positions him as a notable contender in the 2024 election.
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