HomeElection NewsNews by State

Racing to Stop Trump, Republicans Descend on the Iowa State Fair

As the state fair and its Republican pageantry begin, Donald Trump’s rivals face a transformed political environment in Iowa, where he holds a comfortable edge in polls despite rarely visiting.

The Republican Party of Iowa booth took shape on Wednesday, the day before the opening of the Iowa State Fair, which nearly every Republican presidential candidate is set to attend.Maddie McGarvey for The New York Times


In the realm of presidential campaigns, Iowa has historically been the arena for traversing towns, interacting with diverse audiences, and respecting local gastronomic customs. The blueprint for success has entailed connecting with all strata of society and embracing regional culinary traditions, a time-honored strategy to woo voters in the midwinter caucuses, which herald the American presidential electoral cycle.

However, former President Donald J. Trump’s influence might now be delivering a potentially fatal blow to this established approach. With merely five months until the 2024 caucuses, Mr. Trump is leading the polls in a state where he has scarcely set foot. His formidable polling dominance is posing a challenge to the contenders vying to halt his march toward a third nomination. A decisive victory for Mr. Trump in Iowa could cultivate an air of inevitability around his candidacy, presenting a formidable obstacle for any opposing force.

As the Iowa State Fair welcomes Mr. Trump and his Republican rivals, the event serves as the newest platform for a nationalized campaign. The former president’s overwhelming presence, coupled with significant media attention, has inadvertently overshadowed other candidates.

The trajectory of success in Iowa seems to have shifted. Doug Gross, a Republican strategist and the party’s 2002 gubernatorial nominee, underscores the urgency of Iowa as a battleground: “You’ve got to do it in Iowa, otherwise it’s gone, it’s all national media. The chance to show that he’s vulnerable is gone. You’ve got to do it here, and you’ve got to do it now.”

Although most Republican candidates adhere to the conventional approach in Iowa, they remain less popular and visible than Mr. Trump. He has visited the state merely six times since announcing his candidacy in November.

Yet, polling reveals that Mr. Trump’s challengers possess a plausible route to eroding his significant support in the pivotal initial state. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that although Mr. Trump commands 44 percent support among Iowa Republicans, twice the proportion of his closest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 47 percent of Mr. Trump’s supporters are open to backing another candidate.

Despite Mr. DeSantis’s challenges, his campaign enjoys substantial advantages in Iowa. Supported by a fleet of Iowa state legislators and a well-equipped campaign team, including veterans from Senator Ted Cruz’s 2016 presidential bid, he also boasts a formidable super PAC with $100 million resources. Moreover, Mr. DeSantis has pledged to visit all 99 counties, a time-honored tradition that reveals a candidate’s commitment to connect with every voter, even in the sparsely populated rural areas of Iowa.

Yet, convincing Iowans to consider alternatives to Trump remains an uphill battle for Mr. DeSantis. Tom Shipley, a state senator endorsing Mr. DeSantis, points out that the vocal nature of Trump’s supporters doesn’t necessarily correlate to their overwhelming presence. While Mr. DeSantis has garnered receptive audiences and applause at key political events, the surge of Iowans rallying behind him is yet to materialize.

The distinguishing feature of this Iowa campaign, according to interviews with numerous stakeholders, is the elemental question it poses: Trump or not Trump? Unlike prior elections where Iowans often listed a handful of top contenders, Trump’s supremacy has relegated other candidates to vie for a smaller share of the electorate. This crowded field poses challenges for candidates like Mr. DeSantis to consolidate enough support to challenge Mr. Trump.

Eric Woolson, a seasoned Iowa political operator, who has been part of various Republican presidential campaigns, highlights the clear demarcation among voters: “These people are absolutely going to vote for the former president, and those people are absolutely not going to vote for the former president.” Woolson, who now directs Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota’s campaign in Iowa, emphasizes the first hurdle for 2024 campaigns is discerning which voters are willing to consider alternatives to Mr. Trump.

The dynamic is further compounded by a political landscape that pivots on conservative cable news and internet platforms, rather than local Iowa news outlets.

Unlike previous years, where presidential contenders addressed The Des Moines Register’s soapbox, a central stage at the state fair, this year’s scenario is different. Lower-polling candidates, including Ms. Haley and Mr. Pence, are scheduled to speak at the soapbox. Other contenders, except Mr. Trump, will engage in scripted interviews at the fairgrounds with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, aiming to curtail spontaneous moments that once defined Iowa politics.

Mr. Trump, his supporters contend, doesn’t require active engagement in Iowa’s retail politics since his ubiquitous media presence and broad recognition serve him well. “Trump can rely on the network that’s out here already,” asserts Stan Gustafson, a Republican state representative.

However, some Iowa Republicans aligned with Mr. Trump are looking beyond the immediate caucuses. Stan Gustafson, who supports Mr. Trump, is already eyeing potential candidates for the 2028 race. Tim Kraayenbrink, another state senator supporting Mr. Trump, perceives Iowa’s role as an opportunity to evaluate candidates for a potential running mate, with the exception of Mr. Pence.

Ultimately, as Iowa stands at the epicenter of the campaign cycle, the binary question of Trump or not Trump dominates conversations and campaign strategies. The well-trodden Iowa campaign landscape has evolved into a narrower field, and candidates now grapple with stark divisions in an environment characterized by amplified conservative media and distinct lines of allegiance.

Subscribe to our newsletter

COMMENTS