Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech at a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) in Saint Petersburg, Russia June 7, 2024. REUTERS/Anton Vaganov/Pool
On Friday, President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia does not need to resort to nuclear weapons to secure victory in Ukraine. This statement is the Kremlin’s strongest indication to date that Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two is unlikely to escalate into a nuclear war. Since the onset of the conflict in February 2022, Putin has mentioned on several occasions that Russia would use nuclear weapons if necessary to defend itself, remarks that Western observers have described as nuclear saber-rattling.
Nuclear Doctrine and Conditions
During a plenary session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, moderated by influential Russian analyst Sergei Karaganov, Putin was asked if Russia should hold a “nuclear pistol to the temple” of the West over Ukraine. Putin responded that he did not see the conditions for using such weapons. “The use is possible in an exceptional case – in the event of a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. I don’t think that such a case has come. There is no such need,” Putin stated. Moscow regards Crimea, annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and four other Ukrainian regions as integral parts of its territory, potentially raising the stakes for a nuclear strike if Kyiv appeared poised to retake them.
Current Military Situation
Ukraine has increased its drone and missile attacks on Russian targets, including in Crimea, and has vowed to expel all Russian forces from its territory. Putin mentioned that while Russia could test a nuclear weapon if necessary, there is no current need to do so. He did not rule out possible changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which outlines the conditions under which such weapons might be used.
Public Discourse on Nuclear Strikes
The public discussion about nuclear strikes at Russia’s premier economic forum appeared to be a Kremlin attempt to alleviate nuclear fears as the Ukraine war intensifies. Both Russian and U.S. diplomats have indicated that the conflict is entering its most dangerous phase yet. Russia and the United States possess nearly 90% of the world’s nuclear weapons.
Historical Context and Strategic Considerations
Last year, Karaganov suggested a limited nuclear strike on a NATO member in Europe to force the West to back off in the conflict over Ukraine and avert World War Three. On Friday, Karaganov invoked the Biblical story of Sodom and Gomorrah while questioning Putin about escalating the conflict to “teach the West a lesson.” Putin expressed his hope that the world would never witness a nuclear confrontation, emphasizing, “And we don’t have that need. Because our armed forces are not just gaining experience, they are increasing their effectiveness.”
Military Advances and Production
Putin reported that Russian troops are advancing along the front line in Ukraine, having taken 880 square kilometers of territory and 47 villages and towns since the beginning of the year. He also stated that Russia had increased its ammunition production by more than 20 times and was outproducing Ukraine and the West in several measures.
Nuclear Doctrine and Testing
Russia’s 2020 nuclear doctrine specifies the conditions under which a nuclear weapon might be used: in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or when conventional weapons threaten the very existence of the state. Putin mentioned that the doctrine is a “living tool” and that Russia does not exclude making changes to it, including the potential testing of nuclear weapons, although there is currently no need for such tests.
U.S. Involvement and Potential Escalation
U.S. President Joe Biden has relaxed some restrictions on Ukraine’s use of U.S. weaponry inside Russia, prompting warnings from Moscow about a potential dangerous escalation in the conflict, now in its third year. Putin warned that he could deploy conventional missiles within striking distance of the United States and its European allies if they allowed Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with long-range Western weapons.
Western Response and Commitment
Biden, speaking in France on Friday during the 80th anniversary celebrations of the D-Day landings, reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to supporting Ukraine. He drew a comparison between the fight against Nazi Germany and the current threats posed by dictators, emphasizing the continued importance of supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia.
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