British opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer greets a person as he attends a Labour general election campaign event, in Norton Canes, Britain July 2, 2024. REUTERS/Claudia Greco
A forecast by polling company Survation indicates that Britain’s Labour Party is poised for a historic victory in Thursday’s national election. According to Survation’s central scenario, Labour, under Keir Starmer’s leadership, is projected to secure 484 out of 650 parliamentary seats. This would surpass the 418 seats won by former Labour leader Tony Blair in his 1997 landslide victory, marking the highest number of seats in the party’s history.
The Conservative Party, which has governed for the past 14 years, is predicted to win only 64 seats, the lowest since the party’s establishment in 1834. The right-wing Reform UK party is expected to gain seven seats.Survation’s analysis employed the Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) technique, which estimates local public opinion based on large national samples. Pollsters describe this as a model that uses polling data rather than a traditional poll. Other MRP analyses have indicated smaller margins of victory for Labour, but none have suggested a different overall outcome.
Additionally, a regular poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed a slight narrowing in Labour’s lead but still predicted a comfortable victory for the party.
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