The upcoming unsanctioned Democratic primary in New Hampshire on January 23 presents a unique challenge for President Joe Biden, with varying opinions on what constitutes a victory for him or his challenger, Dean Phillips. Despite not appearing on the ballot, Biden faces scrutiny as the sitting president, while Phillips hopes to replicate Eugene McCarthy’s historic showing in 1968 against then-President Lyndon B. Johnson.
Opinions differ on the benchmarks for success. Some believe Biden must exceed 60% to avoid embarrassment, while Phillips supporters argue he only needs around 40%. Others suggest Phillips could surprise with just 30-40%, given his status as a relatively unknown congressman challenging an incumbent. The absence of delegates at stake further complicates the assessment.
Biden’s supporters emphasize the importance of a win, citing the challenges of a write-in campaign and the crowded field of 21 candidates on the ballot. Some Democrats express anxiety about achieving a plurality in the absence of a major write-in campaign precedent in the state.
Phillips has invested significantly in New Hampshire, spending $380,000 on broadcast TV ads and conducting extensive bus tours and town halls. Despite this, recent polls show Phillips trailing, with concerns about sustaining momentum given the subsequent primary calendar.
In a complex political landscape, the definition of victory remains elusive, with opinions ranging from percentage thresholds to a simple win. The Democratic establishment in New Hampshire is rallying behind Biden, with a united effort to encourage voters to write in his name.
The primary outcome could impact Biden’s standing and influence the narrative leading up to subsequent primaries in South Carolina and Nevada. Phillips, aiming for a historic upset, continues to criticize Biden’s approach to New Hampshire, emphasizing the significance of the state’s role in shaping political narratives.
This primary underscores broader tensions within the Democratic Party, with some expressing discontent over Biden’s endorsement of the Democratic National Committee’s plan to alter the primary schedule, eliminating Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional early positions.
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