A hand-painted sign encouraging citizens to vote, sits with Halloween decorations in the front yard of a home in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, U.S. October 20, 2024. REUTERS/Jonathan Drake/File Photo 

Recent Surge in Political Violence in the U.S.

Overview of Political Violence Incidents

In recent months, there has been a significant increase in politically motivated violence across the United States. A man in York, Pennsylvania, physically assaulted a group of individuals participating in a rally supporting Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign. This incident included the assault of a 74-year-old man and derogatory slurs directed at another individual. Simultaneously, in northern Michigan, another individual, driven by his hostility toward former President Donald Trump, used an all-terrain vehicle to injure an 81-year-old man who was putting up a yard sign for Trump’s re-election bid. These are only two of many violent incidents that have marked the political landscape as the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches.

The Increase in Political Violence Since 2021

Since the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, there have been over 300 cases of political violence documented by Reuters. At least 51 of these incidents occurred in 2024 alone. This represents one of the most significant increases in political violence in the U.S. since the 1970s. The violence is not limited to one political group or ideology but spans a variety of contentious political issues, including elections, LGBTQ+ rights, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The incidents range from small confrontations over political signs to violent altercations at rallies. While most incidents have not resulted in fatalities, two deaths were recorded this year: one related to an attempt on Trump’s life, and the other being the shooter involved.

Long-Term Patterns of Political Violence

Experts suggest the rise in political violence began in 2016, coinciding with Donald Trump’s initial presidential campaign. The peak of this violence occurred in 2021, with 93 reported incidents, largely related to the aftermath of Trump’s efforts to challenge the 2020 election results. The violence slightly decreased in the following years, with 79 cases in 2022 and 76 in 2023. The consistency of this trend has raised concerns among political extremism experts, who warn that the highly charged atmosphere surrounding the 2024 election could exacerbate tensions further.

Factors Driving the Increase in Violence

The rhetoric of political leaders, particularly Donald Trump, has been cited as a contributing factor to the rising violence. Trump has frequently used inflammatory language, threatening to prosecute political opponents and promising aggressive action against groups he labels as the “radical left.” This rhetoric, combined with widespread mistrust of political institutions, has created a volatile environment. Nealin Parker, head of Common Ground USA, a nonprofit that works on bridging political divides, expressed concern that violence is becoming an accepted part of the political process in the United States.

Robert Pape, a political violence expert at the University of Chicago, compared the current political climate to a “wildfire season” filled with combustible material and warned of potential outbreaks of violence, especially in battleground states where the margins in the upcoming election are expected to be slim.

High-Profile Incidents of Violence

The first assassination attempt on Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, 2024, was one of the most notable recent incidents. The perpetrator, Thomas Crooks, was killed at the scene, and authorities concluded he had no clear political ideology. The attempted assassination sparked fears of retaliatory violence from Trump supporters. These concerns were partly realized when a man in Florida prepared for armed conflict following the assassination attempt, though he was later detained.

On September 15, a second assassination attempt on Trump occurred in West Palm Beach, Florida. The assailant, Ryan Routh, was apprehended by security before he could carry out his attack. These incidents have underscored the escalating political violence in the lead-up to the 2024 election.

Violence Targeting Supporters of Kamala Harris

Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has also faced violence. In York, Pennsylvania, on September 26, a 74-year-old local politician was assaulted at a Harris rally. The attacker, Robert Trotta, used a racial slur against another rally attendee and was later arrested on assault charges. This incident was one of several violent attacks targeting Democratic campaign events. Despite the severity of the incident, local authorities have not classified it as politically motivated, citing Trotta’s previous record of random assaults.

Broader Implications for U.S. Democracy

The rise in political violence is not confined to traditional partisan divisions. For example, the conflict over the Israeli-Palestinian war has also sparked violence in the United States. One such incident involved an altercation at a pro-Israel rally in Newton, Massachusetts, which resulted in a shooting. Similarly, racial and ethnic tensions have also contributed to the growing violence. For instance, in North Carolina, a group of white men in a truck opened fire on Black teenagers after questioning their support for Trump, resulting in minor injuries.