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Nebraska independent Dan Osborn could be poised to shake up US Senate

The dome of the U.S. Capitol building is seen on a rainy day in Washington, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Leah Millis/File Photo

Dan Osborn’s Independent Senate Run in Nebraska: A Potential Game Changer

Unexpected Strength in a Conservative State

Dan Osborn, a former union leader and Navy veteran, has emerged as a surprisingly strong contender in the U.S. Senate race in deeply Republican Nebraska. Running as an independent, Osborn has narrowed the gap with incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer in recent polls, defying expectations in a state where Donald Trump leads Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris by 18 percentage points. Nebraska last elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 2006, making Osborn’s independent bid a significant development in the 2024 election cycle.

A Populist Platform Bridging Party Lines

Osborn’s campaign appeals to both ends of the political spectrum by blending positions from the major parties. He supports abortion rights, gun rights, opposes corporate influence, and critiques illegal immigration as a source of “cheap labor.” His populist message resonates with voters disillusioned by partisan extremes. “I am frustrated with both sides catering to the extremes,” Osborn said during a televised town hall with KETV.

Unlike independent Senators Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with Democrats, Osborn has made it clear he won’t align with either major party if elected. This independent stance could complicate Republicans’ plans to retake control of the Senate, where Democrats currently hold a narrow 51-49 majority.

Electoral Implications

If Osborn wins, he could play a pivotal role in the Senate, similar to how independent Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have alternately supported and blocked key aspects of President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda. His position could make him a crucial swing vote in a closely divided Senate, potentially shaping key policy decisions.

Nebraska is one of two states that allocates its Electoral College votes by congressional district, which has prompted a targeted Democratic get-out-the-vote effort in Omaha, a liberal-leaning district. Despite this, political science experts, like Elizabeth Theiss-Morse from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, believe that many Republicans may ultimately rally around Fischer when faced with the choice between party loyalty and an independent candidate.

Polls Show a Tight Race

The four most recent polls, all conducted in October 2024, show a narrow margin in the race, with some polls giving Fischer a six-point lead, while others indicate Osborn could be ahead by a similar margin. These results are remarkable for a state known for its conservative politics.

Osborn gained national recognition in 2021 when he led a strike against cereal manufacturer Kellogg’s in Omaha, a move that solidified his appeal among working-class voters. Major labor unions have endorsed his campaign, and he has rejected corporate Political Action Committee (PAC) donations, further bolstering his image as a candidate of the people.

Deb Fischer’s Campaign Strategy

Fischer, a cattle rancher first elected to the Senate in 2012, has campaigned on a platform of traditional conservative values, focusing on agricultural issues, veterans’ affairs, and law enforcement. Her slogan, “Nebraska’s voice, Trump’s choice,” underscores her alignment with Trump and the broader Republican agenda.

In contrast to Osborn’s populist approach, Fischer emphasizes her record of supporting conservative policies that she argues have benefited Nebraska and contributed to national security. “I have a long, conservative record that’s helped build Nebraska and keep America strong,” Fischer stated in a recent campaign message.

Challenges of Governing as an Independent

If elected, Osborn’s refusal to caucus with either party could create challenges. In the U.S. Senate, committee assignments and other perks are typically allocated by party leadership. According to bipartisan strategist John LaBombard, who previously worked for Senator Sinema, Osborn’s go-it-alone approach would introduce a unique and potentially confusing dynamic to a closely divided Senate.

Osborn’s campaign, however, remains optimistic. His team has stated that Senate rules should allow him to secure committee positions, though LaBombard noted that the process for an independent to obtain committee assignments without party backing is ambiguous and may require negotiation or approval from a significant number of other senators.

Appeal to Unaffiliated Voters

Nebraska’s political landscape, where over 20% of voters are not aligned with either major party, may work in Osborn’s favor. Ruth Huebner-Brown, co-founder of the “Blue Dot Nebraska” movement, believes Osborn’s moderate stance reflects the political temperament of many Nebraskans. “He really does represent what Nebraska needs, which is, ‘I will listen to both sides. I am in the middle,'” she said.

With more Nebraskans seeking alternatives to the two-party system, Osborn’s candidacy could represent a shift toward greater political independence in the state, potentially altering the balance of power in Washington.

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