The last two times Marine Le Pen ran for president, French voters found her far-right policies so toxic they united across the political spectrum to keep her out of office. This week, her National Rally party took a significant step toward power, securing a historic victory in a national election. On Sunday, in the first round of a parliamentary election, the party garnered more than 33% of the vote, surpassing both a broad leftist alliance and French President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble party.
Implications of the National Rally’s Victory
The National Rally’s strong performance promises to plunge France into political and economic turmoil. Other parties are expected to unite once again to prevent the National Rally from achieving a majority. The most likely outcome of the second-round vote on July 7 is a hung parliament. However, a government led by Le Pen’s 28-year-old protégé, Jordan Bardella, cannot be ruled out.
Le Pen’s Potential Presidential Bid in 2027
The National Rally’s success also raises the possibility that Le Pen could finally make a successful run for president in 2027, which could send shockwaves across the Western world. Le Pen has campaigned on distancing herself from NATO and the EU and pledged better relations with Russia. For the establishment in Paris and Brussels, the burning question is whether Le Pen truly means what she says.
Meloni’s Influence on Le Pen
In Italy, Giorgia Meloni, a right-wing firebrand who became prime minister in 2022, has reshaped herself as a constructive conservative leader, supporting Ukraine and working closely with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. If Le Pen were elected president of France, could she undergo a similar transformation, a process dubbed “mélonisation” by the French press? Or would she aim her newly acquired power at the twin pillars of the European political order?
Le Pen’s De-Demonization Efforts
Le Pen has spent years trying to moderate her image. She launched a process of de-demonization, ejecting her Holocaust-denying father from the party in 2015, renaming the party, and recruiting Bardella as its respectable face. Despite these efforts, she has not toned down her disdain for NATO and the EU. While she backtracked on calls to leave the EU or its common currency area, she has made her intentions clear about reducing the Commission’s powers.
Comparisons to Meloni’s Governance
Comparisons to Meloni suggest that Le Pen might follow a similar path, working with the EU and NATO while maintaining some radical domestic policies. However, Le Pen’s rhetoric and actions indicate she may remain more extreme than Meloni. For instance, Le Pen continues to advocate stripping social benefits from parents of minors convicted of crimes and banning people with multiple citizenships from holding top public administration jobs.
Future Political Dynamics
The outcome of the upcoming election and Le Pen’s potential rise to power could significantly impact France’s role in the EU and NATO. A government led by Le Pen might adopt a more confrontational attitude towards these institutions, especially if she gains an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
COMMENTS