The second-quarter fundraising deadline has come and gone, shedding light on the challenges facing Republican candidates in their quest for financial support. With no standout figures to boast about, even the incumbent president, Joe Biden, faced lackluster fundraising results.
This lack of significant financial momentum has led to campaigns resorting to spin tactics to downplay their unimpressive fundraising sums. Here are six key takeaways from a lackluster fundraising quarter in the GOP:
Underwhelming Performance Across the Board
Almost every candidate’s fundraising efforts came with notable caveats and disappointing numbers. President Joe Biden’s fundraising fell short of the levels achieved by both Donald Trump and Barack Obama at the same point in their reelection cycles. Trump’s topline number was less than anticipated, considering the campaign’s earlier hints of a post-indictment fundraising surge. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis’ filing raised concerns, with early success that was not sustained and $3 million in funds restricted until the general election. Tim Scott also struggled to match his expenditures with his fundraising totals.
These lackluster fundraising results have already had an impact on the race. DeSantis’ campaign has been forced to reduce staff, signaling a need to adapt to financial constraints. Lower-polling candidates are resorting to desperate tactics, such as gimmicks and giveaways, to accumulate the necessary number of donors for debate qualification. Some candidates with personal wealth, like North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, injected their own funds into their campaigns, inflating their topline numbers.
Increasing Reliance on Super PACs
Without the small-donor base that Trump commanded, Republican candidates find themselves increasingly dependent on outside groups, particularly super PACs, to fill the void left by lackluster campaign fundraising. DeSantis’ super PAC, Never Back Down, is set to report an impressive $130 million raised since its formation earlier this year. This total includes over $80 million raised by DeSantis during his gubernatorial campaign in Florida. Consequently, Never Back Down is establishing a shadow campaign that operates independently of DeSantis’ official campaign, but will be crucial in supporting his candidacy as staff reductions are made.
DeSantis is not the only candidate with a super PAC; several other serious contenders, including Trump, Scott, Nikki Haley, and Mike Pence, have established their own. However, DeSantis’ filing and the ongoing staff reductions serve as a stark reminder of the Florida governor’s reliance on outside efforts to build the formidable operation that his allies touted when he entered the race.
Trump Remains the Small-Dollar King
Despite DeSantis posting a higher topline number in the second quarter than Trump, the former president still dominates the GOP field when it comes to small-dollar donors. DeSantis reported raising a mere $2.8 million from donors contributing less than $200, while Trump’s campaign received an impressive $14.6 million in unitemized contributions transferred from his joint fundraising committee.
While other Republicans may be actively soliciting small donors through merchandise offers or gift card incentives, Trump continues to attract those donors effortlessly, regardless of additional incentives.
Careful Examination of Pro-Biden Spin
The Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee (DNC) boast a healthy $77 million cash on hand, a noteworthy sum. However, some of the data points emphasized by Biden’s surrogates require closer scrutiny. For instance, the claim that Biden and the DNC raised more on a per-day basis than Obama did during the second quarter of 2011 is true but overlooks the fact that donation caps were lower during Obama’s reelection campaign. Today, these caps have increased, allowing for larger individual and national party donations. Similarly, while Biden has outraised his main competitors, Trump and DeSantis, the inclusion of DNC totals in Biden’s numbers gives him an advantage not reflected in Republican fundraising reports. Nonetheless, Biden’s campaign is content with its performance, but areas for improvement remain evident.
Moreover, Biden’s lean campaign operation is commendable. His principal campaign committee reported receiving $19.8 million this quarter, with $11.2 million originating from transfers made by his joint fundraising committees. However, the campaign’s expenditure remained minimal at just $1.1 million.
Former Governors Struggle to Raise Funds
Early fundraising may not be the sole determinant of success, but former governors, including the former vice president, demonstrated that their extensive resumes did not translate into significant fundraising gains. Mike Pence, Chris Christie, and Asa Hutchinson posted relatively modest fundraising numbers, highlighting the challenges they face in garnering support.
Pence’s campaign, for instance, was expected to benefit from his previous vice-presidential and gubernatorial runs, offering a robust donor network. However, since launching his campaign in June, Pence raised only approximately $1.1 million, with more than a quarter of the funds coming from his hometown, Indianapolis. Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador, raised $5.3 million, falling short of her fellow South Carolinian, Sen. Tim Scott, who entered the race after the quarter was halfway complete. As for former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, his fundraising efforts yielded a meager $583,000. These results underscore the challenging nature of fundraising for candidates with well-established political careers.
It is worth noting that Pence’s allies contend he entered the race just last month, with limited time to raise funds during the quarter. Additionally, Pence dedicated a week to visiting Ukraine as part of his effort to showcase his foreign policy experience. Moreover, Pence’s historical success in fundraising has been primarily driven by direct mail campaigns, which traditionally take longer to yield results. While these points are valid, it remains uncertain whether Pence will meet the 40,000-donor threshold required for participation in the first debate.
The August Debate: A Potential Game-Changer
With all major candidates now officially in the race, the upcoming August debate in Milwaukee, hosted by Fox News, presents a significant opportunity to reshape the dynamics of the race. Given the lackluster fundraising totals, the pressure is mounting on non-Trump candidates to deliver a compelling debate performance and distinguish themselves from the competition.
However, the debate’s impact could be compromised if Trump follows through on his threat to boycott the event. The absence of the frontrunner could dampen the debate’s energy and diminish its viewership. Consequently, the August debate may not prove to be the campaign-altering event many had anticipated, and instead might mirror the underwhelming fundraising results of the second quarter.
Conclusion
The lackluster fundraising results in the GOP primary have highlighted the challenges faced by Republican candidates as they navigate the fundraising landscape. The upcoming debate represents a pivotal moment for candidates to revive their campaigns, gain momentum, and differentiate themselves from their competitors. However, its significance may be diminished if the frontrunner decides not to participate, potentially undermining the event’s impact. As the primary race continues, candidates must find innovative ways to attract donors and build robust campaign operations to secure their positions as viable contenders.
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