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Killing of Hamas chief in Iran stirs fears of retaliation

Palestinian group Hamas’ top leader, Ismail Haniyeh speaks during a press conference in Tehran, Iran, March 26, 2024. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS/File Photo

Incident Overview

Early on Wednesday morning, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, an attack that has escalated tensions and raised concerns about a broader Middle East conflict. Both Hamas and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards confirmed Haniyeh’s death, which occurred hours after he attended the swearing-in ceremony of Iran’s new president. Although the attack was widely attributed to Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government neither confirmed responsibility nor commented on the killing.

Details of the Assassination

According to senior Hamas official Khalil Al-Hayya, Haniyeh was killed by a missile strike at a state guesthouse. The incident has prompted calls for a thorough investigation by Iranian authorities. Haniyeh, who had been based in Qatar, played a significant role in Hamas’s international diplomacy, particularly during the conflict initiated by Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7.

Regional and International Reactions

The assassination of Haniyeh came shortly after Israel claimed responsibility for killing Hezbollah’s senior military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, in retaliation for a rocket strike in the Golan Heights. Netanyahu, in a televised statement, did not mention Haniyeh’s death but emphasized Israel’s recent actions against Iranian proxies, including Hamas and Hezbollah. He assured Israeli citizens of the government’s preparedness against any aggression.

Implications for Gaza Ceasefire Talks

Haniyeh’s killing has significantly impacted the ongoing ceasefire negotiations. Hamas’s military wing warned that his assassination would escalate the conflict, while Iran declared three days of national mourning and blamed the United States for supporting Israel. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed retribution, stating that Israel would face severe consequences for the attack.

Responses from Global Leaders

Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to ceasefire negotiations and the release of hostages held in Gaza. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized the importance of a ceasefire to prevent further regional escalation but did not comment directly on Haniyeh’s assassination.

Qatar and Egypt, both involved in mediating the conflict, condemned the killing as a dangerous escalation. Qatar’s Prime Minister questioned the viability of mediation efforts if negotiators were targeted. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and factions in the West Bank also condemned the assassination, calling for strikes and mass demonstrations.

Reactions Within Israel and Gaza

In Israel, the assassination was seen as a significant achievement in the fight against Hamas. However, Gaza residents expressed fear that Haniyeh’s death would prolong the conflict and worsen their already dire situation.

Succession and Leadership Dynamics

Analysts and Hamas officials indicated that Khaled Meshaal, Haniyeh’s deputy-in-exile based in Qatar, is the most likely successor. Meshaal, who survived an assassination attempt in 1997, has played a crucial role in Hamas’s political strategy and regional influence.

Background on Haniyeh

Appointed as Hamas leader in 2017, Haniyeh navigated between Turkey and Qatar, enabling him to engage in diplomatic efforts and negotiations. His leadership saw significant challenges, including the killing of his three sons in an Israeli airstrike in April. Haniyeh’s assassination, along with the deaths of other senior Hamas figures, underscores the high stakes and volatility of the conflict.

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