Kamala Harris is slightly ahead of Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, but Pennsylvania remains a key battleground with the race tied at 48% each. These three states are crucial for both candidates’ paths to the White House, with Harris focusing on maintaining the so-called Blue Wall to secure an Electoral College majority.
Harris and Trump Deadlocked in Pennsylvania as Blue Wall States Loom Large
A new CNN poll shows Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a virtual tie in Pennsylvania, with both candidates receiving 48% support from likely voters. Pennsylvania, a key battleground state, is seen as a tipping point in the 2024 presidential election, as it plays a central role in both candidates’ strategies to secure the presidency.
Harris Leads in Michigan and Wisconsin
In Michigan, Harris leads Trump by a margin of 48% to 43%, while in Wisconsin, she has a more comfortable lead of 51% to 45%. Both states are critical to Harris’ plan to rebuild the Blue Wall that helped President Joe Biden win in 2020. Trump’s team is focusing on flipping these states back, as they were crucial to his victory in 2016.
Solidified Voter Decisions with Few Undecided
The CNN survey revealed that more than 90% of voters in these three states have already solidified their choice for president, leaving a small fraction of undecided or persuadable voters. This is a significant decrease compared to previous polls, indicating that both campaigns are focusing on turnout rather than persuasion in the final stretch before Election Day.
Senate Races Also Competitive
In addition to the presidential race, the poll also highlighted competitive Senate races in the Rust Belt. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin holds a 48% to 42% lead over former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Democratic incumbents Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin hold slight leads over their Republican challengers, though neither race has a clear frontrunner.
The Importance of the Blue Wall
For Harris, winning Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — the Blue Wall states — is critical to her strategy for securing an Electoral College victory. Even if she loses some of the Sun Belt states, capturing these three states, along with one electoral vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, could be enough to secure the presidency.
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