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Israel’s Incursion into Lebanon: Risks of a Prolonged Conflict with Hezbollah

Israel’s incursion into southern Lebanon, aimed at dismantling Hezbollah’s capabilities, risks escalating into a prolonged and challenging conflict. Drawing on historical experiences, there are concerns that despite tactical successes, Israel may face a lengthy and costly engagement, with regional implications. Political leaders in Israel remain divided on the long-term strategy and potential consequences.

Even by its own tragic record, Lebanon is now facing “one of the most dangerous phases” of its history according to Prime Minister Najib Mikati. | AFP via Getty Images

Israel’s Latest Incursion: A Risk of Prolonged Conflict

Israel’s recent cross-border military incursion into southern Lebanon is being portrayed as a swift and decisive mission to cripple Hezbollah’s capabilities. However, the parallels to the 1982 invasion, which resulted in an 18-year occupation, have raised concerns. This operation, triggered by months of rocket attacks from Hezbollah, is viewed as necessary to safeguard Israeli civilians. Israeli officials believe Hezbollah is weakened by the recent assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, yet the risks of being drawn into a prolonged conflict are real.

Hezbollah’s Response and the Challenge Ahead

Despite the decapitation of its leadership, Hezbollah has vowed to resist, utilizing rugged terrain and tunnel networks in southern Lebanon to launch attacks. The group’s fighters, including potential reinforcements from Syria and Iraq, remain a significant challenge. Israeli intelligence indicates that Hezbollah has embedded rocket launchers and other military assets in civilian homes, complicating efforts to neutralize their threats. While Israeli forces are confident in their ability to push Hezbollah back, the operation is expected to be difficult and could lead to significant civilian casualties.

Political Divisions in Israel Over the Mission

Israel’s political leadership is united in its support for the operation, but doubts exist. Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has expressed skepticism, citing the costly human toll of the previous occupation. He questions whether Israel has a long-term strategy beyond the initial objectives of pushing Hezbollah back to the Litani River. Some politicians, including far-right ministers, are pushing for the total destruction of Hezbollah, while others are wary of overextending Israel’s military.

Broader Regional Implications

Israel’s actions are also viewed through the lens of its broader strategy against Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that weakening Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, is part of a larger goal to curb Tehran’s influence in the region. The conflict has the potential to spill over into a wider regional confrontation, with Iran, Syria, and other actors involved. As Hezbollah regroups and attempts to replace its leadership, the risk of escalating violence remains high.

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