An Iranian woman votes at a polling station in a snap presidential election to choose a successor to Ebrahim Raisi following his death in a helicopter crash, in Tehran, Iran June 28, 2024.Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency) via REUTERS
Following the death of Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, Iranians voted for a new president on Friday, selecting from a restricted group of four candidates loyal to the supreme leader amidst growing public frustration and Western pressure. The election takes place against a backdrop of escalating regional tensions due to the war between Israel and Iran’s allies, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon, along with increasing Western pressure on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program.
Election Context and Potential Impact
While the election is not expected to lead to significant changes in the Islamic Republic’s policies, it may influence the succession of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s 85-year-old supreme leader, who has been in power since 1989. Khamenei called for high voter turnout to address a legitimacy crisis fueled by public discontent over economic hardship and restrictions on political and social freedoms. “The durability, strength, dignity, and reputation of the Islamic Republic depend on people’s presence,” Khamenei stated on state television after casting his vote.
Candidates and Election Dynamics
The candidates include three hardliners and one relative moderate, Massoud Pezeshkian, backed by the reformist faction that has been largely sidelined in recent years. A hardline watchdog body, composed of six clerics and six jurists aligned with Khamenei, vetted the candidates, approving only six from an initial pool of 80. Two hardline candidates subsequently withdrew.
The prominent hardliners include Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the parliament speaker and former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator and advisor in Khamenei’s office. All candidates have pledged to revive the struggling economy, which has been plagued by mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions re-imposed since 2018 after the United States withdrew from Tehran’s 2015 nuclear pact with six world powers.
Public Sentiment and Turnout
The election has seen divided voter sentiment. Pezeshkian, while loyal to Iran’s theocratic rule, advocates for détente with the West, economic reform, social liberalization, and political pluralism. His campaign emphasizes respect for the hijab law without intrusive enforcement, referencing the death of Mahsa Amini in 2022, which triggered widespread protests against Iran’s clerical rulers. Pezeshkian’s success depends on re-engaging reform-minded voters who have largely abstained from voting in recent years due to dissatisfaction with political and social restrictions.
The election saw varying turnout rates, with state television showing queues inside polling stations in several cities and polling hours extended due to high voter demand. If no candidate secures over 50% of the vote, a run-off will be held between the top two candidates.
Broader Implications
The election coincides with increased regional tensions and internal challenges, including significant public unrest. The outcome, while unlikely to shift major policies directed by Khamenei, could influence Iran’s domestic and foreign policy tone and shape the future political landscape, particularly regarding the succession of the supreme leader. The international community closely watches the election’s implications for Iran’s nuclear program and regional dynamics, especially as Western countries continue to pressure Tehran over its nuclear ambitions and regional activities.
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