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Governor Races in 2024: A Key Battleground for Political Polarization

As 2024 governor races loom, the influence of Donald Trump sparks anticipation of heightened political polarization. Key battlegrounds like North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Washington set the stage for closely contested elections that will shape local and national politics. Explore the dynamics and under-the-radar races that could influence party control in these critical gubernatorial contests.

North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson (left) is running for his state’s top office with the support of former President Donald Trump next year. | Allison Joyce/Getty Images

As the 2024 governor races approach, political analysts anticipate heightened polarization, with former President Donald Trump’s influence looming large. These state-level elections will not only shape local policies but also impact the broader political landscape. Here’s a closer look at key races.

North Carolina: High Stakes for Democrats

2020 Presidential Results: Trump 49.9%, Biden 48.6% | 2020 Gubernatorial Results: Cooper (D) 51.5%, Forest (R) 47%

North Carolina emerges as a battleground for Democrats as Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat, faces term limits. State Attorney General Josh Stein leads the Democratic contenders, while Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a Trump-backed figure, takes the lead for Republicans. The state, closely contested in 2020, will be pivotal, with abortion, democracy, and the economy at the forefront.

New Hampshire: Democrats Eye a Sununu-less Win

2020 Presidential Race: Biden 52.7%, Trump 45.4% | 2020 Gubernatorial Race: Sununu (R) 65.1%, Feltes (D) 33.4%

With popular Governor Chris Sununu not seeking reelection, Democrats see an opportunity in New Hampshire. Former U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte and former state Senate president Chuck Morse vie for the Republican ticket. Democrats, divided between Mayor Joyce Craig and Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington, aim to capitalize on changing dynamics in this historically purple state.

Washington: Republicans Aim for Uniquely Competitive Race

2020 Presidential: Biden 58%, Trump 38.8% | 2020 Gubernatorial: Inslee (D) 56.6%, Culp (R) 43.1%

In Washington, Republicans eye an upset with former Congressman Dave Reichert challenging the open seat. Reichert, known for his law enforcement background, emphasizes crime, homelessness, and the economy. State Attorney General Bob Ferguson stands as the Democratic contender. Democrats remain cautious but acknowledge the potential competitiveness in this traditionally blue state.

The Best of the Rest: Under-the-Radar Races

Delaware, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, Utah, Vermont, Montana, North Dakota

Eight other states host gubernatorial contests, with term-limited incumbents and potential competitive primaries. Notably, Vermont’s Phil Scott’s decision on seeking a fifth term could influence party control. Analysts keep an eye on under-the-radar races, with Democrats eyeing opportunities in traditionally red states and vice versa.

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