House Speaker Mike Johnson is navigating a risky political terrain as he leads the charge for the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Despite GOP leaders expressing confidence in securing the required votes for the Tuesday impeachment vote, the slim margin and internal divisions add an element of uncertainty to the high-stakes political gamble.
Risky Bet with Slim Margins:
Numbers Game
GOP leaders can only afford to lose three Republican votes in a full attendance scenario. With holdouts and declared “no” votes from Reps. Ken Buck and Tom McClintock, the GOP leadership acknowledges the potential for last-minute changes and has not ruled out the possibility of pulling the vote.
Policy Differences and Impeachment
Representative Ken Buck emphasizes that policy differences, administrative issues, or incompetence alone are insufficient grounds for impeachment. He contends that adopting incompetence as a standard could leave Congress devoid of members.
Behind-the-Scenes Efforts and Conservative Reluctance:
Months of Preparation
House Republicans have invested months in behind-the-scenes efforts to shore up GOP support for the unprecedented move of impeaching a Cabinet secretary. Johnson, alongside leadership members and Homeland Security Chair Mark Green, has engaged with holdouts, keeping their leanings closely guarded.
Reluctance and Impeachment
Conservative Rep. Dan Bishop highlights that some colleagues set an unattainable bar for what constitutes an impeachable offense. The politicization of impeachment has made some members reluctant to tread into what they view as a politically charged territory.
Tight Vote and Future Implications:
Looming Special Election
The impending special election for the seat of expelled GOP Rep. George Santos adds pressure, as a Democratic win would further constrain the GOP’s margin for error. A loss on the Mayorkas impeachment vote could be detrimental to the GOP’s broader push to impeach President Joe Biden.
Persuasion Efforts and Key Holdouts
Efforts to persuade holdouts, including Reps. Patrick McHenry, Brian Fitzpatrick, David Joyce, and Maria Salazar, have intensified. GOP leaders accuse Mayorkas of a “breach of public trust” and a “systemic refusal to comply with the law” to garner support.
Criticism and Potential Senate Outcome:
Growing Criticism
The Mayorkas impeachment effort faces criticism from Republican-allied pundits and constitutional experts, including former President Donald Trump’s impeachment defense team. Some argue that the allegations lack grounds for impeachment.
Senate’s Likely Disposition
Even if the House Republicans successfully impeach Mayorkas, the Senate is expected to swiftly dismiss the articles. GOP senators anticipate Democrats using procedural moves to avoid a trial, signaling potential challenges ahead for the broader GOP impeachment push against Biden.
Tuesday’s vote on Mayorkas’ impeachment stands as a critical moment for House Republicans. The outcome will not only determine the fate of the Homeland Security Secretary but could also influence the GOP’s strategy and prospects in their larger impeachment endeavor targeting President Joe Biden.
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