Montana’s vulnerable Democratic Senator Jon Tester is trailing his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by 8 points in a recent independent poll, signaling a potential shift in Senate control to Republicans. The late-August AARP survey of 600 likely voters shows Sheehy with 49% of the vote compared to Tester’s 41% in a four-way race. The poll also included Libertarian and Green Party candidates, who garnered 4% and 1%, respectively.
In a direct head-to-head match-up, Sheehy leads Tester by 6 points, 51% to 45%, suggesting a strong GOP advantage in this crucial Senate race.
Trump’s Popularity Boosts Sheehy
One of the key factors driving Sheehy’s lead is the overwhelming popularity of former President Donald Trump in Montana. The poll shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a commanding 56% to 41%, with a 9-point lead among independent voters. This Trump advantage appears to be bolstering Sheehy’s campaign, as the Republican candidate benefits from the broader GOP momentum in the state.
While Tester has a slight lead over Sheehy among independent voters in the Senate race, it is not enough to close the overall gap created by Trump’s popularity.
Challenges for Jon Tester
The polling memo from Fabrizio Ward and David Binder Research warns that Tester faces significant challenges in overcoming Sheehy’s lead. “Tester is not overperforming Harris by enough to overcome the large gap at the top of the ticket,” the memo notes. Additionally, the poll suggests that both Tester and Harris have nearly maxed out their vote share among Democrats, leaving little room for growth in a state where Republicans hold a clear advantage.
Tester’s decision to withhold an endorsement for Harris’ presidential campaign further complicates his position among the Democratic base.
Implications for Senate Control
The Montana Senate race is crucial for Republicans, who need to flip just two seats to reclaim control of the closely divided Senate. With a likely pickup in West Virginia following Senator Joe Manchin’s retirement, the GOP is eyeing Montana as another opportunity to unseat a Democratic incumbent.
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Steve Daines, who hails from Montana, has made Sheehy’s campaign the GOP’s top priority. Daines personally recruited Sheehy, a military veteran and businessman, to challenge Tester, recognizing the significance of this race for Senate control.
Poll Details
The AARP survey was conducted between August 25-29 and included a sample of 600 likely voters in Montana. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. As the race heats up, the continued polling advantage for Sheehy offers Republicans a potential path to reclaiming the Senate in 2024.
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