A voter casts their vote in the ballot box during the Brandenburg state election in Forst, Germany, September 22, 2024. REUTERS/Fabrizio Bensch
Far-Right AfD Expected to Lead in Brandenburg Regional Election
Strong Performance of AfD in Eastern Germany
Voters in the German state of Brandenburg headed to the polls on Sunday for a regional election where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) was expected to outperform other parties, marking a significant challenge for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD) in one of their historical strongholds. Building on its momentum from previous victories in eastern states, the AfD is projected to claim first place in Brandenburg, a region long dominated by the SPD.
On September 1, the AfD made history by becoming the first far-right party to win a state election in Germany since World War II, securing victory in Thuringia. While the party also performed strongly in Saxony, it narrowly missed first place. Despite these electoral gains, other political parties refuse to collaborate with the AfD in coalition governments. As the party has not secured a majority in Thuringia or Saxony, and is unlikely to do so in Brandenburg, it remains excluded from forming regional governments.
AfD’s Rise Linked to Broader European Far-Right Movements
The AfD’s rising influence is part of a broader trend across Europe, where far-right groups are capitalizing on public concerns over economic downturns, immigration, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. These issues resonate particularly strongly in eastern Germany, which has experienced slower economic recovery since the fall of Communism. Additionally, the AfD has drawn support from widespread discontent with Chancellor Scholz’s federal coalition government, which has been marred by internal disputes.
Voter Turnout and Polling
As of 2 p.m. local time (1200 GMT), voter turnout in Brandenburg reached 46% of the state’s 2.1 million eligible voters, significantly higher than the 31.3% turnout at the same time during the 2019 election, according to the state’s interior ministry. Polls are set to close at 6 p.m. (1600 GMT), with exit polls and preliminary projections expected immediately afterward.
Optimism from SPD and AfD Candidates
Dietmar Woidke, the SPD’s premier of Brandenburg, cast his vote in Forst near the Polish border on Sunday. Despite facing a tough challenge, Woidke expressed optimism. “We were more or less told the situation is hopeless. But I believe that, on the whole, we have shown that we as the Brandenburg SPD have our own strength,” he told journalists.
Similarly, Hans-Christoph Berndt, the AfD’s candidate for Brandenburg’s state premier, expressed confidence in his party’s prospects compared to the previous election. “If we continue to receive the same level of support we’ve seen in recent weeks and months, things in Germany will start to improve,” Berndt said. He emphasized that while the election is significant, it alone will not determine Brandenburg’s future.
Implications for the SPD and National Politics
An AfD victory in Brandenburg would be a major blow to the SPD, which has governed the state since German reunification in 1990. Such an outcome would also raise further concerns about Chancellor Scholz’s leadership ahead of the 2025 federal election. Scholz, who lives in Brandenburg’s capital, Potsdam, is currently the least popular chancellor on record, according to recent polls. Despite this, Woidke has distanced himself from Scholz during the campaign, focusing instead on local economic successes, such as the establishment of a Tesla factory and the opening of Brandenburg Airport, now Germany’s third-largest aviation hub.
In recent weeks, opinion polls have shown the SPD closing the gap with the AfD. A survey conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on Thursday placed the AfD at 28%, with the SPD just behind at 27%, followed by the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) at 14% and the newly formed left-wing Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 13%.
Future Political Landscape
Woidke has vowed to prevent right-wing extremists from gaining political influence, even threatening to resign if the SPD finishes behind the AfD. Meanwhile, AfD national leader Tino Chrupalla has called on Scholz to step down if his party underperforms. Both of Scholz’s coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP) and the Greens, are struggling to surpass the 5% threshold required to secure seats in the Brandenburg parliament.
At the national level, Scholz’s three-party coalition continues to trail behind the conservative opposition, though analysts note that much could change before the federal election in September 2025.
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