A nun looks at the candidates list displayed at a polling station during the European Parliament elections, in Rome, Italy June 9, 2024. REUTERS/Alberto Lingria
Eurosceptic nationalists achieved significant gains in the European Parliament elections on Sunday, while the Greens and liberals lost ground, according to an aggregated exit poll. This shift could complicate EU policymaking and efforts to enhance integration over the next five years.
Far-right parties in countries such as France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Austria performed strongly, leading to a rightward shift in the 720-seat parliament, which plays a crucial role in shaping and approving EU legislation. The immediate impact of this vote was evident in France, where President Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly called for snap parliamentary elections after his party suffered a substantial defeat to the far-right National Rally.
Eurosceptic nationalist groups, including the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), along with unaffiliated far-right lawmakers from Germany’s AfD, secured a combined total of 149 seats, a gain of 22, according to the first centralized exit poll. The poll indicated that pro-European center-right, center-left, liberal, and Green parties would retain a majority with 451 seats, a reduction from the 488 seats in the outgoing parliament.
Green parties in Europe faced significant losses, dropping to 53 deputies from 71 in the previous parliament. The European Parliament shares legislative power with the intergovernmental European Council, governing the 27-nation bloc of 450 million people. A shift to the right in the parliament may hinder the passage of new legislation that promotes EU resource sharing or cooperation needed to address security challenges, climate change impacts, or industrial competition from China and the United States.
The influence of eurosceptic nationalist parties will depend on their ability to overcome differences and collaborate, as they are currently divided between two groups, with some parties and lawmakers not yet aligned with any group.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also faced a challenging night, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) securing second place behind the conservatives, while Scholz’s Social Democrats recorded their worst result ever.
Power Balance
Political analysts attribute the shift to the right to concerns about the cost of living, migration, the expenses of the green transition, and the war in Ukraine, issues that nationalist and populist parties have capitalized on. The centralized exit poll revealed that the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) would be the largest political family in the new legislature, gaining five seats to hold 181 deputies.
This outcome benefits EPP member Ursula von der Leyen, who seeks a second term as the head of the EU’s executive arm. Von der Leyen will require the support of both EU leaders and the parliament. However, she may still need backing from some right-wing nationalists, such as Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, to secure a parliamentary majority, thereby giving Meloni and her ECR allies greater influence.
The center-left Socialists and Democrats are projected to be the second-largest political family, despite losing four seats, resulting in a total of 135. Conversely, the ECR is expected to gain two more deputies, totaling 71, and the far-right ID group is anticipated to gain 13 seats, bringing their total to 62.
The number of non-affiliated deputies, who might join other groups, including eurosceptics, increased by 40 to a total of 102, according to the exit poll.
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