French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is applauded by members of parliament as he speaks during the questions to the government session at the National Assembly in Paris, France, December 3, 2024. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier
French Government Faces Collapse as No-Confidence Votes Loom
French lawmakers are set to vote Wednesday on no-confidence motions that are expected to topple Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s fragile coalition government. If passed, it will mark the first time in over 60 years that a French government has been ousted by such a vote.
The crisis comes as France grapples with a massive budget deficit and broader political instability, raising concerns about potential economic and political fallout across the eurozone.
A High-Stakes Debate
The parliamentary debate will begin at 4 p.m. (1500 GMT), with voting expected three hours later. President Emmanuel Macron, who is returning from a state visit to Saudi Arabia, has expressed disbelief over the possibility of the government’s collapse.
“I cannot believe a no-confidence vote [will take place],” Macron reportedly said, reaffirming his commitment to serving his term despite the political turmoil.
Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau warned that bringing down the government would place France in an “insufferable situation,” accusing opposition lawmakers of recklessness.
Budget Battle at the Core
The immediate trigger for the crisis is Barnier’s decision to bypass parliamentary approval on the social security section of the budget after failing to secure support from Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). The budget aims to reduce the fiscal deficit from over 6% of GDP this year to 5% in 2024, largely through €60 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts.
Le Pen, whose far-right party had been propping up Barnier’s minority coalition, blamed the government for failing to compromise. She pledged her party’s support for a left-wing alliance’s no-confidence motion, ensuring enough votes to bring down the government.
Market Turmoil and Economic Implications
The political uncertainty has rattled financial markets. On Tuesday, the yield spread between French and German government bonds widened to its highest level in over 12 years, reflecting investor concerns over France’s fiscal stability.
If the government falls, the caretaker administration would face the daunting task of managing emergency spending limits to prevent further economic disruption. However, critical savings measures outlined in Barnier’s budget would likely be abandoned.
Risks for Marine Le Pen
Le Pen’s support for the no-confidence motion poses risks for her National Rally (RN) party. While it strengthens her opposition credentials, it undermines her efforts to present RN as a stable governing alternative.
An Ipsos poll last month revealed that 50% of voters still view RN as a threat to democracy, despite improved perceptions compared to 2020. Furthermore, party chief Jordan Bardella now enjoys higher favorability among RN supporters, while Le Pen awaits judgment in an EU funds misuse trial that could bar her from public office for five years.
Macron’s Role and Path Forward
Macron precipitated the current crisis by calling snap parliamentary elections in June, resulting in a fractured political landscape. Although parliament cannot force him out of office, the collapse of Barnier’s government would leave Macron searching for a new prime minister to rebuild a workable coalition.
If no budget agreement is reached by December 20, the caretaker government could pass emergency measures to roll over spending into 2024. However, this would delay the deficit-reduction measures critical to maintaining France’s credit rating and economic stability.
Broader Implications
The fall of Barnier’s government would leave a political vacuum in France just as Germany is in election mode and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. This instability threatens to disrupt the eurozone’s second-largest economy, deepening divisions within the EU.
Observers are closely watching the aftermath of the vote for signs of whether Macron can reestablish control and avoid further destabilizing the political landscape.
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