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In a striking parity, one year prior to the presidential election, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll unveils a deadlocked race, with both Joe Biden and Donald Trump commanding 37% of the vote. The dynamic, however, takes an intriguing twist with the presence of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a scion of the revered Democratic family, who secures 13% of the vote. Kennedy’s emergence appears to cost Trump a marginal lead he might otherwise enjoy.
Another independent contender, progressive activist Cornel West, garners 4% in this hypothetical match-up. Interestingly, West’s supporters would predominantly migrate to Biden if he were not on the ballot, further complicating the political arithmetic.
This survey underscores the intricacies of electoral mathematics and the unsettled terrain of the impending rematch between the 2020 contenders, now infused with the emergence of significant independent candidacies and the possibility of more.
The sentiments of voters reflect the complexities of this landscape. Carl Hickey, an 85-year-old retired Methodist minister from Maryland, conveys the sentiment of those seeking alternatives, stating that the prevailing division necessitates a different approach. Desiree Whitney, a 64-year-old retiree from Texas who voted for Trump in 2020, is open to considering Kennedy in 2024, motivated by the perception that he transcends the traditional Washington mold, despite his advocacy of conspiracy theories.
Remarkably, a quarter of voters, or 26%, express their willingness to support a bipartisan ticket proposed by a centrist group called No Labels. An additional 23% indicate that they might consider it, contingent on the nominees. It’s noteworthy that Biden voters appear more open to this idea, with 28% expressing serious consideration, compared to 18% of Trump supporters.
The poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters through landline and cellphone interviews, exhibits a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Not since the enigmatic billionaire businessman H. Ross Perot garnered 19% of the vote in 1992, thereby altering the electoral calculus and facilitating Bill Clinton’s victory, has the prospect of independent candidacies loomed large in American politics.
Without Kennedy in the equation, Trump maintains a narrow lead over Biden, 41% to 39%, with West securing 7%. In the absence of West, Biden edges Trump by an even slimmer margin, 38% to 37%, with Kennedy commanding 14%. Should neither Kennedy nor West be on the ballot, Biden and Trump find themselves in a deadlock at 41%.
Trump Bolsters GOP Leadership Despite facing ongoing legal challenges, Donald Trump has solidified his grip on the Republican nomination. In this poll, he commands a formidable 58% in the GOP field, representing a 10-point surge from the June USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, once Trump’s leading rival at 23%, has witnessed a significant decline to 12%, barely ahead of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has surged from 4% to 11%.
The remaining contenders struggle to attain more than 3% support. Significantly, Trump enjoys a pronounced advantage over Biden when it comes to voter enthusiasm. Trump’s average enthusiasm rating stands at 7.1, whereas Biden lags behind at 6.28.
Trump’s ardent supporters who rate their enthusiasm at the maximum level, 10, encompass 50% of Republicans, 58% of union members, and 54% of voters aged 50 to 64, constituting his strongest demographic. These fervent backers attribute their support to Trump’s exposure of political intricacies and his resistance to the “Republican in name only” label often used against moderates and lobbyists.
In stark contrast, none of Biden’s demographic groups approach the same level of enthusiasm. Even at the top end, where supporters rate their enthusiasm at 10, Biden’s numbers are notably lower. This fervor characterizes 29% of those aged 65 and older, 21% of Black voters, and just 17% of Democrats.
Trump’s approval rating currently stands at 40% approve and 56% disapprove, with 41% strongly disapproving and only 13% strongly approving.
Dislodging Trump Supporters The poll delves into what might dissuade Trump supporters from voting for him. The findings reveal the unwavering commitment of a substantial portion, as 27% state that nothing could change their stance. An additional 15% would only consider an alternative if Trump were not on the ballot, while 6% might reconsider in the unfortunate event of his passing, and 4% in case they were unable to vote. In essence, 52% of Trump supporters seem resolute in their choice unless extreme circumstances intervene.
Around a third of Trump supporters could envision a shift in their allegiance, with 3% citing offensive behavior or rhetoric and 4% indicating a change in policy views as potential triggers. Another 14% would switch their allegiance if a superior candidate emerged, and 12% would reconsider their support if Trump were incarcerated.
This survey offers a fascinating glimpse into the intricate dance of American politics, replete with independent candidates and shifting allegiances, as the nation looks ahead to a potentially transformative presidential election.
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