People watch the presidential debate between Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris at a watch party hosted by the New York Young Republican Club, in New York City, U.S., September 10, 2024. REUTERS/Adam Gray/File Photo
Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump by 7 Points in Latest Poll Ahead of U.S. Presidential Election
Overview
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican candidate Donald Trump by 7 percentage points in the race for the November 5 U.S. presidential election. The poll indicates that Harris has gained ground in key areas such as the economy and jobs, traditionally seen as strengths for Trump.
Poll Results
The poll, which surveyed 1,029 U.S. adults nationwide between Friday and Monday, showed Harris with the support of 46.61% of registered voters, while Trump was backed by 40.48%. This six-point lead, when rounded, translates into a 47% to 40% margin. The Democrat’s advantage has increased slightly compared to a similar Reuters/Ipsos poll from September, which gave her a five-point lead over Trump. The poll has a margin of error of about four percentage points.
Importance of Battleground States
While national polls offer key insights into voter sentiment, the outcome of the election will ultimately be decided by the state-by-state results of the Electoral College. Seven battleground states are expected to be particularly crucial in determining the winner. Polls in these states show Harris and Trump in a tight race, with many results falling within the polls’ margins of error. For instance, a recent New York Times/Siena College poll indicated that Trump held narrow leads in three critical states: Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
Economic Issues: A Key Battleground
Economic concerns remain a central issue for voters, with both candidates emphasizing economic policy in their campaigns. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll asked voters which candidate had a better approach to the economy, unemployment, and jobs. While 43% of voters favored Trump’s approach, 41% chose Harris, reducing Trump’s previous lead on economic issues. In August, Trump had a three-point lead, and in late July, his advantage was as high as 11 points after Harris launched her campaign.
Trump’s perceived strength on the economy stems from several years of high inflation under the Biden administration. In earlier Reuters/Ipsos polling from April to June, voters consistently favored Trump over Biden by margins of five to eight points on economic issues. Despite narrowing leads, Trump continues to maintain a significant advantage in some measures of economic confidence. For instance, a Reuters/Ipsos poll from August showed Trump leading Harris by 11 points, 45% to 36%, when asked which candidate had a better overall approach to the U.S. economy.
Campaign Strategies
Both Harris and Trump have made the economy a central focus of their campaigns. Trump, who has frequently highlighted his economic track record, promised on Tuesday to establish special manufacturing zones on federal lands and to raise tariffs on imported goods as part of his strategy to boost the U.S. economy. Harris, in contrast, has pledged tax breaks for families with children and higher taxes for corporations. She is expected to introduce additional economic policy proposals this week, although her advisors acknowledge the challenge of convincing voters in the limited time remaining before Election Day.
Polling Averages
The polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight.com, which aggregates multiple national surveys, shows a competitive race between the two candidates, with Harris leading Trump 48.3% to 45.8%. However, the race remains close, and both campaigns are working to secure support in key battleground states.
Voter Breakdown
Among the 871 registered voters surveyed in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, 785 were identified as the most likely to vote on Election Day. Among these likely voters, Harris’ lead over Trump increased to 50% to 44%. However, the five-point lead among likely voters mirrors her overall advantage when using unrounded figures, underscoring the narrow margins as the election approaches.
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