U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris delivers remarks during a campaign event, at West Allis Central High School, in West Allis, Wisconsin, U.S., July 23, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt
Poll Indicates Slight Lead for Kamala Harris Over Donald Trump
Following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris, a Reuters/Ipsos poll has shown Harris opening up a marginal two-percentage-point lead over former President Donald Trump. This lead represents a reversal from the previous week’s poll, where Biden trailed Trump by two points.
Poll Details and Context
- Poll Conducted: The poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, immediately after the Republican National Convention where Trump formally accepted the nomination, and Biden’s Sunday announcement endorsing Harris.
- Current Standings: Harris leads Trump 44% to 42%, within the poll’s 3-percentage-point margin of error.
- Previous Polls: In a July 15-16 poll, Harris and Trump were tied at 44%, while Trump led by one percentage point in a July 1-2 poll.
Analysis of Poll Results
Despite the lead, Harris’ advantage remains within the margin of error. A pollster from Trump’s campaign suggested that Harris’ increased support could be temporary, influenced by extensive media coverage following her new candidacy.
Candidate Comparison
- Mental Acuity: 56% of registered voters believe Harris is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% for Trump and only 22% for Biden.
- Democratic Support: Harris enjoys a 91% favorability rating among Democratic voters, compared to 80% for Biden.
- Party Unity: 75% of Democratic voters support rallying behind Harris, while 25% believe multiple candidates should vie for the party’s nomination.
Potential Running Mates for Harris
The poll also explored voter familiarity with potential running mates for Harris:
- Pete Buttigieg: 37% favorability, with about one in four voters unaware of him.
- Gavin Newsom: Similar favorability to Buttigieg, but one in three voters had not heard of him.
- Mark Kelly and Andy Beshear: Lesser-known, with half and two-thirds of voters respectively unaware of them.
Hypothetical Three-Way Race
In a hypothetical ballot including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris led Trump 42% to 38%, with Kennedy receiving 8% of the vote. Kennedy has not yet qualified for the ballot in many states.
Conclusion
Harris’ campaign is gaining traction, as evidenced by her lead in the latest poll and her strong support among Democratic voters. The upcoming weeks will be crucial as she continues to campaign, particularly in key battleground states like Wisconsin.
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