Members of the media use a screen to watch the presidential debate, as Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris attend a presidential debate hosted by ABC in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 10, 2024. REUTERS/Evelyn Hockstein/File Photo
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a Tight Race as Election Approaches
Overview of the Latest Polling Data
In the final days leading up to the U.S. presidential election on November 5, Vice President Kamala Harris maintains a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump, holding a one-point advantage of 44% to Trump’s 43%, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. The survey, conducted over three days and concluded on Sunday, reflects a statistical tie, with a margin of error of about three percentage points. This poll underscores the competitive nature of the race, as Harris’ lead has diminished consistently since September.
Evolving Public Sentiment on Key Issues
The latest poll, surveying 1,150 U.S. adults—including 975 registered voters—shows Trump leading on several key issues that are pivotal to voters. Notably, voters preferred Trump’s approach to the economy, jobs, and unemployment, with a 47% to 37% advantage over Harris. This economic focus resonates with 26% of voters who cited jobs and the economy as the nation’s primary concerns, outpacing those who highlighted political extremism (24%) and immigration (18%) as top issues.
Immigration and Economic Policies Shape Voter Preferences
Immigration is another area where Trump holds a substantial lead, with 48% of voters favoring his stance compared to 33% for Harris. Trump’s campaign has focused on stringent immigration policies, including mass deportations of undocumented immigrants. Meanwhile, Harris has faced a decreasing lead on political extremism, a topic central to her campaign given the January 6 Capitol riot in 2021, for which she continues to emphasize Trump’s role.
In the most recent poll, 40% of respondents aligned with Harris on addressing political extremism and threats to democracy, while 38% favored Trump, a narrow lead that has dwindled from her seven-point advantage in earlier polling.
Candidates’ Final Messages
As part of her closing campaign efforts, Harris plans to address supporters in what her team describes as her final significant speech before the election. The speech is set to take place at the site of Trump’s January 6 rally, where he encouraged supporters prior to the Capitol breach. Trump has countered these criticisms, framing Harris’ policies as extreme, suggesting they would bring about a “socialist takeover” of U.S. institutions.
Implications of the Electoral College and Historical Precedent
Despite her marginal national lead, Harris’ campaign must account for the Electoral College, where outcomes in key battleground states will determine the winner. These states, often referred to as the “swing states,” could mirror the 2016 election, in which Trump secured an Electoral College victory despite losing the popular vote by two points to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Polls indicate Harris and Trump are closely matched in these critical states as well.
Voter Turnout: A Decisive Factor
Voter turnout is anticipated to play a pivotal role in determining the election outcome. In the 2020 election, voter participation reached its highest level in over a century, with approximately two-thirds of U.S. adults casting ballots. This year, voter certainty appears even stronger, with 89% of registered Democrats and 93% of registered Republicans expressing absolute certainty that they will vote, suggesting an increase in voter commitment since 2020.
Among those most likely to vote, Harris maintains a narrow lead, polling at 47% to Trump’s 46%, underscoring the race’s competitive nature and the significance of each candidate’s get-out-the-vote efforts in securing victory.
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