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European Leaders Preparing for Trump’s Return: Who Wins and Who Loses?

Europe is witnessing a new political competition—gaining influence over U.S. President Donald Trump. While some far-right leaders like Giorgia Meloni and Viktor Orbán are among the frontrunners, others like Emmanuel Macron and German conservative Friedrich Merz are taking a more pragmatic approach. The European Union’s institutional leaders, however, are struggling to gain Trump’s attention. This ranking of European politicians’ “Trump-compatibility” sheds light on who might have the strongest diplomatic ties with the U.S. under Trump’s administration.

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 19: President-Elect Donald Trump dances on stage while the Village People perform “YMCA” on stage at his victory rally at the Capital One Arena on January 19, 2025 in Washington, DC. Trump will be sworn in as the 47th U.S. president on January 20. (Photo by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

European Politicians Compete for Trump’s Favor

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni: The Leading Trump Ally in Europe

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is emerging as one of Trump’s closest European allies. She was the only EU leader invited to his January 20 inauguration and has held multiple private meetings with him, including at Mar-a-Lago. Meloni’s alignment with Trump is seen as politically advantageous, but her previous relations with the Biden administration and Italy’s low defense spending could pose challenges.

Italy’s Giorgia Meloni: The Leading Trump Ally in Europe

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is emerging as one of Trump’s closest European allies. She was the only EU leader invited to his January 20 inauguration and has held multiple private meetings with him, including at Mar-a-Lago. Meloni’s alignment with Trump is seen as politically advantageous, but her previous relations with the Biden administration and Italy’s low defense spending could pose challenges.

Hungary’s Viktor Orbán: A Longtime Trump Loyalist with Risks

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long been an admirer of Trump, receiving multiple invitations to meet him. Trump has praised Orbán as a “great man.” However, Orbán’s ties to Russia and China, along with his opposition to increased defense spending, could weaken his standing with the U.S.

Poland’s Right-Wing Leaders: Strong Defense, But Political Uncertainty

Poland has been a strong U.S. ally in defense matters, significantly increasing its military spending and hosting American troops. However, Poland’s internal political shifts complicate its alignment with Trump. While the previous Law and Justice (PiS) government was closely aligned with Trump’s policies, the new pro-EU administration led by Donald Tusk may take a different approach, making Poland’s position uncertain.

France’s Emmanuel Macron: Seeking Influence Despite Political Differences

French President Emmanuel Macron has had a complex relationship with Trump. While they have had moments of cooperation, their ideological differences remain stark. Macron has actively engaged with Trump on key issues but also criticized his policies, particularly on climate change and NATO. Despite this, France’s strong defense capabilities and independent foreign policy could allow Macron to maintain a functional relationship with Trump.

Germany’s Friedrich Merz: The Conservative Challenger to Trump’s Critics

German opposition leader Friedrich Merz, seen as a potential successor to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, has positioned himself as a pragmatist in dealing with Trump. Unlike Scholz, who has been critical of Trump’s policies, Merz believes in maintaining strong ties with the U.S. while balancing European interests. His support for increased defense spending could make him a more favorable figure in Trump’s eyes compared to the current German leadership.

European Union Leaders: Struggling for Attention

While individual European leaders are working to build relationships with Trump, the EU as an institution faces challenges. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel have had limited engagement with Trump. The EU’s bureaucratic structure and its emphasis on multilateralism contrast with Trump’s preference for bilateral deals, making it difficult for Brussels to gain his attention.

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