Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff threats against China are raising alarms in Brussels, where officials fear a cascade of economic repercussions for Europe. The U.S. president-elect has pledged tariffs ranging from 10% to 100%, potentially pushing Chinese exports away from U.S. markets and into Europe, threatening industries already struggling with weak economic growth.
Fear of Displacement: Europe’s Trade Woes
Trump’s plan to impose tariffs as high as 100% on China, particularly if Beijing abandons the U.S. dollar or fails to curb fentanyl exports, has sparked concerns in the EU. The result could be a flood of cheap Chinese goods into Europe, further straining fragile economies like Germany, which is set to experience its second consecutive year of negative growth.
Anthony Gardner, a former U.S. ambassador to the EU, highlighted the risks:
“This displacement effect could promote deindustrialization and bolster populist parties as industries scramble for answers.”
Navigating Between Washington and Beijing
The EU faces a tough decision—aligning with Washington in a trade war or maintaining its profitable yet complex relationship with China, its largest export market. Historically, the U.S. and EU have disagreed on how to manage China’s trade practices, but both sides share concerns about China’s non-market economy policies.
Keith Rockwell, a former WTO official, notes the potential friction:
“Trump will expect the EU to respond to China’s export-driven policies, but transatlantic differences remain on the approach.”
Existing Measures and Trump’s Escalation
The EU has already imposed up to 35% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, citing unfair subsidies. However, this is modest compared to the Biden administration’s 100% duties on similar imports. Trump’s anticipated demand for tougher EU action could further complicate the transatlantic trade dynamic.
Challenges in Aligning Policies
While both sides aim to curb Chinese overcapacity, Brussels prefers traditional trade defense measures over Trump’s more unilateral approach. Ignacio García Bercero, a former EU trade official, predicts the EU will focus on safeguards rather than arbitrary actions.
Despite efforts to find common ground, such as the Biden administration’s “green metals club,” past U.S.-EU trade disputes underscore the difficulty of forging a unified front.
Looking Ahead
As Trump prepares to take office, Brussels must brace for the ripple effects of his China trade policies. Whether through cooperation with Washington or independent measures, the EU faces critical decisions in balancing economic stability and geopolitical alliances.
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