WASHINGTON — Two new polls conducted after President Joe Biden’s debate with Donald Trump offer discouraging news for Democrats, showing a shift in favor of Trump.
Poll Results Show Trump Leading
A Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll published Tuesday revealed Trump leading Biden by 3 percent in a six-candidate presidential ballot. This marks a significant shift from a survey a month earlier that had the two candidates tied. Similarly, a CNN poll conducted by SSRS found Trump holding a 6 percentage point lead over Biden, unchanged from an earlier survey. However, the CNN poll also highlighted that 56 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning registered voters believe their party has a better shot at winning with a candidate other than Biden.
Growing Concerns Over Biden’s Performance
These new polls come amid growing concerns about Biden’s ability to effectively compete against Trump. Following the debate, where Biden appeared to struggle against Trump’s verbal attacks, more Democrats are calling for Biden to step aside. Despite this, the Biden campaign pointed to other polls, including internal ones, that show the president tied or ahead of Trump. The campaign also referenced media coverage of President Barack Obama’s 2012 debate, which caused a temporary drop in his polling.
Debate Performance Perceptions
Voter perceptions of the debate were stark. The CNN poll found that 76 percent of voters thought Trump performed better, compared to 23 percent for Biden. Similarly, the USA TODAY poll showed 50 percent of respondents believed Trump won the debate, with only 11 percent favoring Biden. Despite these perceptions, 44 percent of those who watched the debate stated it did not influence their voting decision. Roughly a third reported they were more likely to vote for Trump, while 10 percent leaned more towards Biden.
Potential Democratic Replacements for Biden
Speculation about potential replacements for Biden has intensified. According to the CNN poll, 75 percent of voters believe the Democrats have a better chance of winning the presidency in 2024 with someone other than Biden. The poll tested various Democratic alternatives against Trump. Vice President Kamala Harris performed better than Biden with 45 percent support, while California Gov. Gavin Newsom and U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg matched Biden at 43 percent. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer performed worse than Biden with 42 percent.
Poll Methodology
The CNN poll was conducted from June 28-30, surveying 1,045 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. The USA TODAY poll was conducted during the same period, surveying 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
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