Mr Xi faces a host of problems at home as he arrives in San Francisco. Via Getty Images
US President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping are set to hold a high-stakes meeting in California, and there is no shortage of potentially tricky topics to discuss.
Trade, war in the Middle East and Taiwan are among the issues likely to be on the agenda.
So what would success look like for each leader?
What Xi wants
China’s leader, seemingly omnipotent, is not immune to pressure, and amidst perceived setbacks, he seeks a decisive, public victory. The focus lies on what transpires domestically, with crucial importance placed on portraying strength in handling relations with the Americans through carefully curated images in the Chinese media.
The upcoming discussions between the two leaders raise considerable interest, especially given the myriad of potentially sensitive issues between Beijing and Washington. Freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, US support for Taiwan, and trade restrictions on emerging technologies could feature prominently in the talks.
This year witnessed the abrupt removal of two high-profile appointees, the foreign minister and the defense minister, without explanation. The judgement of China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is under scrutiny as he selected these individuals who later faced dismissal. The purge of Rocket Force generals, responsible for the nation’s nuclear missiles, added to the sense of unease within the upper echelons of the Communist Party. Speculation abounds about the reasons behind the replacement of top officials in this elite nuclear unit, contributing to the perception that all is not well within the Party.
Xi’s decision to abandon the highly unpopular ‘Zero Covid’ policy last year, in response to widespread protests against stringent movement restrictions, resulted in an unknown death toll as the virus surged. Meanwhile, China’s once-thriving economic engine is experiencing disruptions, marked by record-high youth unemployment, layoffs in the tech sector, and a looming housing crisis.
In the midst of these challenges, positive developments in China’s relations with the primary world superpower would be welcome, offering a potential boost to trade and serving as a respite from internal woes.
What Biden wants
Anticipations for a groundbreaking shift in the upcoming meeting are muted; a substantial enhancement in Sino-American relations remains impractical. The primary objective is to avert further deterioration in the already strained relations between the two nations, with little anticipation of headline-worthy agreements or tangible outcomes. However, the meeting carries considerable importance when one contemplates the potential consequences of its absence, envisioning the various ways in which China and the US could clash, leading to perilous outcomes.
The expected discourse from President Biden is centered on urging China to leverage its growing influence over Iran, emphasizing the importance of avoiding provocative actions in the Middle East that could escalate into a broader regional conflict. Addressing the situation in Ukraine, Biden is likely to caution against any Chinese support for Russia with lethal military equipment. A crucial objective for the US is the re-establishment of military communication channels, recognizing their significance in preventing misunderstandings from escalating into perilous confrontations.
The contentious issue of Taiwan looms large, as China severed military communications following a high-profile visit to the self-governing island by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Recent Pentagon reports indicating China’s substantial buildup of nuclear weapons and increasingly provocative actions against US forces in the region add further tension. Avoiding a further deterioration in relations over Taiwan could be considered a noteworthy achievement.
Economic and trade matters, including America’s embargo on exporting certain advanced semiconductor chips to China, will feature prominently in the discussions. Additionally, concerns about Chinese-made fentanyl flooding the US, along with warnings against Chinese interference in the upcoming US presidential election, will be on the agenda.
President Biden, leveraging his decades-long foreign affairs track record and personal relationships with global leaders, believes he is uniquely positioned to de-escalate global tensions. This meeting serves as a significant test of that belief.
COMMENTS