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When Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy — the likely speaker of a GOP House next year — suggested this week that he’d pull back on U.S. funding for Ukraine’s battle against Russia, it wasn’t the first signal to the Biden administration that Republican lawmakers are leery of prolonged financial support for Kyiv. But for many in Congress, including some Republicans, McCarthy’s comments only heightened the urgency of going big on a Ukraine aid package in December before the California Republican likely takes the reins of the House.
The GOP leader’s comments also drew pointed, if subtle, rejoinders from corners of the party that don’t want to edge away from fiscal commitment to Ukraine’s war effort. One piece of pushback came from former Vice President Mike Pence, who used a Wednesday speech to chide Republicans who “would have us disengage with the wider world” and then took to Fox News to push his party for continued Ukraine aid.
The murky picture of a divided GOP presents a clear challenge to President Joe Biden: Should his administration try to front-load more Ukraine aid in a must-pass year-end spending bill to avoid public jockeying with Republicans over future funding?
Privately, Biden aides believe that McCarthy will blink and keep the funnel open to Ukraine, at least for a while, though he may insist on smaller numbers. They also forecast internal pressure from Republicans — some from House members like Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and more in the Senate, including from Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (who’s exerted it before) — to keep the money flowing.
Their calculus is that a political blowback would singe the GOP if the money stopped, Ukraine suffered, and Russia emerged triumphant.
“Nobody’s talking about a blank check. It’s what [Ukraine] needs,” Fitzpatrick said in an interview. “This is a historical thing where war fatigue sets in, and this is the big risk. In fact, it’s something that Vladimir Putin banks on, that it’s no longer going to capture the front page of the newspaper … and people are going to forget about it and the genocide will be occurring in the darkness. We’re trying to prevent that.”
For now, what’s clear is that Republicans are increasingly divided between the McCarthy camp — dubious of more multi-billion-dollar boosts to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as the U.S. economy veers toward recession — and the McConnell camp, which remains supportive of additional aid. The House Foreign Affairs Committee’s likely next chair, Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), made his preference known this week by calling for continued weapons transfers and military assistance.
“The Ukrainians — when we give them what they need, they win,” McCaul told Bloomberg TV.
Conservatives like Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), meanwhile, dominate the tighten-the-pursestrings camp. Roy, a House Freedom Caucus member who frequently takes a hard line against federal spending, said McCarthy’s position on Ukraine aid is the more “responsible” one.
The White House has yet to publiclyindicate that the latest GOP yellow lights are changing any of its plans for a post-election legislative sprint that could prove its last chance to frontload more Ukraine assistance in a must-pass government spending bill.
But administration officials have also prepared for a moment when the congressional spigot will tighten, knowing that no war funding can continue indefinitely. There have been preliminary discussions about trying to pass an aid package during the lame-duck session if the GOP does take the House, though nothing has been finalized.
A National Security Council spokesperson told POLITICO simply that the administration would keep asking Congress to help Kyiv beat back Moscow “for as long as it takes,” echoing President Joe Biden’s similar vow earlier this year at the annual NATO summit.
The White House has not delivered a recent warning to the Ukrainian government about the possibility of aid ceasing if Republicans take control of at least one chamber of Congress in January. But White House aides said that Kyiv is well aware of the possibility. Zelenskyy and his top advisers have tried to lobby Democrats and Republicans alike to keep the funding going even as the war drags on and worries about a global recession grow.
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