In a strategic shift, President Joe Biden’s campaign has launched a sharp attack on Donald Trump, focusing on his New York criminal conviction, after internal polling revealed the verdict turns off voters.
Biden Campaign’s New Strategy
For weeks, Biden’s campaign refrained from attacking Trump’s New York criminal conviction. However, recent internal polling and focus groups indicated that highlighting Trump’s felony conviction could negatively impact his voter base. As a result, the Biden campaign released a hard-hitting ad labeling Trump as a “convicted criminal who’s only out for himself.”
“We’ve seen in polling since the conviction that the more the conviction is front and center in voters’ attention, the worse it is for Trump,” said a Biden campaign pollster. The pollster added that their research shows Trump’s conviction can effectively portray him as self-centered and irresponsible.
Key Points of the New Ad Campaign
- Character Contrast: The ad, part of a $50 million June ad buy in battleground states, aims to frame the election around a character contrast between Biden and Trump.
- Highlighting Convictions: Biden’s campaign emphasizes Trump’s felony conviction as evidence of his self-serving nature, while contrasting Biden as a candidate working for voters, particularly in lowering healthcare costs.
- Public Response: Recent public polls align with Biden’s internal findings. A New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden gaining 2 percentage points, narrowing Trump’s lead to 1 point. A POLITICO/Ipsos poll found that 21% of independents were less likely to support Trump due to his conviction.
Campaign Dynamics and Future Plans
Initially, Biden’s team downplayed the political significance of Trump’s conviction. They believed that focusing on Trump’s personal legal issues might be counterproductive. However, as post-verdict polling indicated significant voter disapproval, the campaign adjusted its strategy. The Biden team plans to keep Trump’s conviction in the spotlight to influence voter perception as the election approaches.
“We need to ensure this issue remains prominent and doesn’t fade from voters’ minds,” said a second Biden campaign pollster.
Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records related to a payoff to a porn star, with a sentencing hearing scheduled for July 11. In response to the new ad, the Trump campaign accused Biden’s team of using the conviction for political gain and claimed that voters view the trial as politically motivated.
Reactions from Democratic Leaders
Democratic leaders have praised Biden’s more aggressive stance. Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) expressed approval of the campaign’s intensified contrast between Biden and Trump, emphasizing the importance of character in the election.
Matt Bennett, co-founder of the center-left group Third Way, noted, “There is a group of voters for whom the convictions matter and they are the voters who will decide the election. It’s clear that these voters are shaken by the idea of a convicted felon becoming president.”
Addressing Potential Risks
Some Democrats were initially concerned that attacking Trump’s conviction might open the door for Republicans to attack Biden over his son Hunter’s legal issues. However, Democratic strategists argue that Hunter Biden’s situation is less relevant since he is not running for president.
Jim Demers, a Democratic strategist, remarked, “Hunter Biden isn’t running for president. Donald Trump is.”
Despite the challenges, Democrats believe addressing Trump’s conviction is necessary. Rep. Seth Moulton (D-Mass.) stated, “Trump’s conviction is something American voters should understand. I wish [Biden] didn’t have to address it. But it’s a reality of having Trump in the race.”
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