A still image taken from a video released by Hamas shows what it says are its fighters firing mortar shells at Israeli forces during Israel’s ground offensive, in a location given as Gaza, obtained by Reuters on November 7, 2023. Hamas Military Wing/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
Israeli Government Claims Progress in Military Campaign Against Hamas
Senior officials in Israel’s government have asserted that the nation is nearing its objectives in its military campaign against Hamas, which includes the organization’s military defeat and the return of hostages seized on October 7. However, the persistence of Hamas as a guerrilla force and its influence in Gaza may complicate any potential agreement.
After nine months of sustained military action by one of the Middle East’s most formidable armed forces, Hamas has been significantly weakened from the group that carried out the cross-border attack on Israel on October 7. Initially, Hamas propaganda showcased well-equipped fighters in body armor and battle fatigues, adorned with ammunition belts. Currently, videos depict small insurgent groups in T-shirts and trainers conducting hit-and-run attacks in Gaza’s devastated streets.
Insights on Hamas’ Strategy and Losses
Reuters interviewed various sources, including three individuals knowledgeable about Hamas tactics, two former Hamas militants, three Palestinian officials, two Israeli military sources, and an Israeli defense official, to provide insight into the group’s losses and strategies. According to Israeli and Palestinian sources, a communications network established by Hamas before the war has suffered significant damage, resulting in fragmented command and reliance on in-person message delivery to avoid Israeli surveillance.
A Palestinian source familiar with Hamas military tactics indicated that personnel losses and the destruction of the communications network have led to the collapse of centralized decision-making. The Israeli military has also reported that much of the extensive tunnel network beneath Gaza has been compromised or destroyed. Despite these setbacks, Hamas has adopted guerrilla tactics aimed at ensuring the group’s survival, tying down Israeli forces, and inflicting casualties, according to another Palestinian source.
Statements from Israeli Officials
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, addressing soldiers in Rafah, southern Gaza, stated that Israel is close to defeating Hamas militarily, according to a statement from his office. Gallant emphasized that eliminating Hamas as a military organization would create conditions favorable for negotiating the release of hostages. Hamas captured approximately 250 hostages during the October 7 attack and killed 1,200 people, according to Israeli reports. Currently, Hamas and other militants hold 115 hostages, about a third of whom have been declared dead in absentia by Israeli authorities.
Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Address and Hamas’ Response
In a recent address to the U.S. Congress, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged the imminent release of the hostages and outlined a post-war vision of a “demilitarized and deradicalized Gaza” governed by Palestinians not seeking Israel’s destruction. Hamas dismissed Netanyahu’s remarks as “pure lies,” accusing the Israeli leader of obstructing negotiations to end the war and achieve a ceasefire agreement for the hostages’ release, which had been proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden in May and mediated by Egypt and Qatar. Netanyahu reiterated that victory would only be secured once Hamas’ military and governing capabilities are dismantled, and Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.
Assessments of Hamas’ Resilience
Despite reported losses, Hamas maintains that its command structure remains intact, albeit weakened. Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri refuted Israeli claims, stating that the actual situation on the ground differs significantly. Israel’s military reported that it has killed or captured at least 14,000 Hamas fighters from an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 at the conflict’s onset. By comparison, Israel states that 326 of its soldiers have been killed in Gaza since the ground offensive began, a figure slightly higher than the approximately 300 Israeli casualties on October 7.
Israeli Military and Strategic Analysis
Israel’s military chief spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, noted that recent intelligence suggests the death of Hamas’ military chief Mohammed Deif and another senior commander, Rafa Salame. Several leading Hamas military commanders, including Ayman Nofal and Ahmed Al-Ghandour, have been confirmed dead by Palestinian sources. However, ongoing conflicts in areas like Khan Younis indicate that Hamas continues to engage Israeli forces effectively, delaying a conclusive victory.
Michael Milshtein, an expert at Tel Aviv’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, emphasized that Israel is far from achieving its goal of dismantling Hamas’ government and military capacities. He highlighted the necessity of addressing Hamas’ social, political, and economic influence beyond its military threat.
The Path Forward for Israel and Gaza
The Israeli military’s response to the October 7 attack has devastated Gaza, resulting in over 39,000 deaths, according to Palestinian figures. The IDF’s strategy involves a three-phase offensive: an initial aerial campaign, followed by a ground offensive, and concluding with mopping-up operations. Most of Gaza has been in the final phase for approximately six months, with Israeli officials asserting that remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah are close to being dismantled.
Hamas’ missile and rocket arsenal, initially estimated at 15,000 to 30,000, has been significantly depleted, with at least 13,000 projectiles fired. Kobi Michael, of Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, noted that Hamas no longer operates as a conventional military force and that ongoing operations will be necessary to prevent its resurgence.
Hamas’ Continued Resistance
Sources close to Hamas indicate that the group has long prepared for a shift to guerrilla tactics to withstand conflict with Israel. Key operations, including weapon production, continue, and new recruits join Hamas’ military wing regularly. The tunnel network, despite extensive damage, remains a significant obstacle to Israeli objectives. Israeli military officials acknowledge that while much of Hamas’ infrastructure has been destroyed, further efforts are required to fully dismantle the group’s capabilities.
Conclusion
The Israeli government’s assertion of nearing its military objectives against Hamas highlights significant progress but also underscores the challenges ahead. Hamas’ resilience, guerrilla tactics, and enduring influence in Gaza present ongoing obstacles to a definitive resolution. As the conflict continues, the situation remains complex, with both sides facing substantial hurdles in achieving their respective goals.
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