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Arizona Democrats Eye State Legislature Flip in 2024

Democratic state legislative candidate John McLean speaks to volunteers before an organized canvas. To his left is Kristin Engel, Democratic nominee for Arizona’s 6th Congressional District, and to his right is state Sen. Priya Sundareshan, co-chair of the Arizona Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. | Photos by Liz Crampton/POLITICO

A Key Battleground State

Arizona Democrats are mounting their most ambitious campaign in years, aiming to flip the state legislature and secure full control for the first time since the 1960s. With Republicans holding a narrow one-seat majority in both the state House and Senate, the race is tight. The Democratic Party sees Arizona as a critical battleground, not just for the presidential race but for rebuilding state-level power.

Strategic Messaging and Candidate Recruitment

Democratic candidates are focusing on a range of issues, including abortion rights, public education, and economic concerns. The party is running moderate, populist candidates to appeal to a broader electorate, contrasting with what they describe as the extreme positions of some Republican incumbents. The emergence of abortion as a pivotal issue has galvanized many Democratic candidates and voters alike.

The Challenge of Convincing Moderates

Despite their efforts, Democrats face significant challenges in convincing Arizona’s moderate voters to switch sides. The state’s history of conservative politics, embodied by iconic figures like Barry Goldwater and John McCain, makes it a challenging environment for Democrats. Additionally, the presence of strong conservative voices, such as state Senator Justine Wadsack, complicates their efforts.

On-the-Ground Campaigning

Democratic volunteers and candidates are actively canvassing, especially in competitive districts like LD17 in Tucson. These efforts focus on local issues rather than national politics, aiming to connect with voters on immediate concerns like border security and public school funding. This approach is designed to resonate with voters who may be disillusioned with national political discourse.

Financial and Organizational Efforts

Democrats are making significant investments in their state legislative campaigns, with substantial funding from groups like the States Project and Forward Majority. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is also playing a key role. These efforts are part of a broader strategy to counteract years of Republican dominance in state legislatures across the country.

The Importance of Voter Turnout

A critical factor for the Democrats’ success will be mobilizing voters, especially in competitive districts. They are working to mitigate the issue of “down-ballot roll off,” where voters neglect to vote in local races. With tight margins expected, every vote will be crucial.

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