HomeElection News

Analysis: How Trump could influence the Fed

Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally held with Republican vice presidential nominee Senator JD Vance, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., August 3, 2024. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/File Photo

Trump Signals Potential Involvement in Federal Reserve Decisions if Reelected


Former President Donald Trump, a Republican candidate for the 2024 presidential election, has indicated his interest in influencing Federal Reserve policy should he regain the presidency. Speaking at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, Trump asserted that the president should have input on Federal Reserve decisions, marking the most explicit statement yet on this issue.

Indications of Policy Shift
This statement follows reports earlier in the year suggesting that Trump allies had drafted proposals aimed at reducing the Federal Reserve’s independence in the event of a Trump victory. While the Trump campaign distanced itself from these reports at the time, Trump’s recent remarks align with the proposals’ core idea: that the president should be consulted on interest rate decisions, and that Federal Reserve banking regulations should be subject to White House review.

Historical Context
Presidential dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve, especially during periods of interest rate increases, is not unprecedented. However, Trump’s proposed involvement would mark the most direct presidential influence on Federal Reserve policy since President Richard Nixon in the early 1970s.

Contrasting Views on Federal Reserve Independence
Trump’s stance contrasts sharply with that of Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president. According to an aide, Harris believes that the Federal Reserve should maintain its independence from presidential influence.

Potential Control Through Presidential Appointments

Appointment Process
The most direct means for a president to exert control over the Federal Reserve is through the appointment process. The president nominates the Federal Reserve Chair, subject to Senate confirmation. Trump could potentially appoint a chair more aligned with his views on presidential involvement in Federal Reserve policy.

Historical Tensions with Current Fed Chair
Trump has a contentious history with current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whom he appointed in 2018. Despite Trump’s frequent criticism, Powell has built strong relationships with both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, bolstering his position. Powell’s current term as chair, following his reappointment by President Joe Biden, expires in May 2026. Trump has indicated that he would not seek to remove Powell before the expiration of his term, despite having considered this during his previous presidency.

Future Appointments
Should Trump be reelected, he would have the opportunity to appoint a new Federal Reserve Chair following Powell’s term expiration, assuming Senate confirmation. Additionally, Trump could nominate individuals for the two vice-chair positions, one overseeing monetary policy and the other focused on banking supervision.

Structure and Composition of the Federal Reserve System

Overview of the Federal Reserve System
The Federal Reserve System, established by Congress in 1913, consists of the Washington-based Federal Reserve Board, 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks across the country, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which sets interest rates.

Composition of the Federal Reserve Board
The Federal Reserve Board is composed of seven members, including the Chair, two Vice Chairs, and four other governors. All are appointed by the president and require Senate confirmation. Currently, the board includes two members appointed by Trump, who have upheld the tradition of Federal Reserve independence. Other potential nominees from Trump’s first term, who were perceived as more willing to challenge this tradition, either withdrew or failed to secure Senate confirmation.

Regional Federal Reserve Bank Presidents
Each regional Federal Reserve Bank is led by a president appointed by a subcommittee of the bank’s board of directors. The FOMC includes all seven members of the Federal Reserve Board, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four other regional bank presidents on a rotating basis.

Current and Future Composition of the Federal Reserve Board

Term Lengths and Expirations
Federal Reserve governors serve 14-year terms, with term expirations staggered every two years. The next term set to expire is held by Governor Adriana Kugler, a Biden appointee, in 2026. The Chair and Vice Chairs serve four-year terms, concurrent with their governorships. While traditionally former Chairs do not remain on the board if not reappointed as Chair, there is no legal requirement for them to step down.

Potential Scenarios for Powell
If Powell were not reappointed as Chair, he could choose to remain on the board, thereby limiting the number of board positions available for new presidential appointees. However, if he opts to leave, Trump would have the opportunity to further shape the Federal Reserve Board’s composition.

Reappointment of Federal Reserve Bank Presidents
The terms of all current regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents will expire in February 2026. At that time, they will be considered for reappointment by the Board of Governors. Historically, this process has not led to significant changes in leadership, although this is a matter of tradition rather than law.

Subscribe to our newsletter

COMMENTS