Mariam Zuhaib/AP
In recent times, we’ve witnessed an unprecedented divide within the House Republican majority, and it’s not solely rooted in ideological differences, but also in the trust members have in their leadership’s capacity to find common ground that appeases the party.
While the ongoing discourse surrounding House Republican divisions often attempts to frame it along the traditional right-left ideological spectrum, there’s more to this schism than meets the eye. Those who voted against Kevin McCarthy as speaker tend to be more conservative than the GOP at large, but the conservative spectrum within this House majority is vast, and not all conservative members backed McCarthy’s ouster.
This division also revolves around the question of whether Republicans should strive to govern through compromise. Are they willing to back the compromises House GOP leaders have brokered with Democrats to ensure the government’s functioning?
Examining roll call votes in Congress offers insight into this situation. Unsurprisingly, Florida’s Matt Gaetz emerges as the Republican representative who has been least aligned with party leadership this Congress, as per a metric by Voteview’s academics.
What’s more crucial is that the gap in this score between House Republicans open to compromise and friendly with party leadership and those opposed to it (i.e., the top fifth and bottom fifth percentiles) is wider than it’s been in the past 80 years. These lawmakers on the fringes of the conference hold particular significance due to the narrow margin of the current GOP majority, as demonstrated by the recent speaker ousting.
These representatives like Gaetz didn’t emerge out of thin air; they were elected by the people. Specifically, many of the voters who strongly support former President Donald Trump.
The party of Trump Consider a question in a recent CNN/SSRS survey: Should Republicans in Congress “stand firm on beliefs without compromise, even if not much gets done in Washington, or work across the aisle to get things done in Washington, even if it means losing out on some high-priority policies?”
A majority of Trump supporters in the 2024 GOP primary (52%) preferred Republicans in Congress to stand firm on their beliefs. In contrast, among Republicans not supporting Trump, only 23% favored lawmakers who didn’t compromise, while most (77%) desired congressional Republicans who collaborated across the aisle.
Notably, the CNN poll found that the majority of Republicans (58%) are endorsing Trump in the primary. Trump’s appeal lies in his unconventional approach, which departs from the typical Republican modus operandi.
Hence, it’s not surprising that the majority of Trump supporters (56%) approved of McCarthy’s removal as speaker following his deal with Democrats to avert a government shutdown. Conversely, among all other Republicans, only 37% approved of McCarthy’s ousting.
It’s worth mentioning that, among Republican voters, the idea of compromise to avoid a government shutdown isn’t drastically different from a decade ago. What seems to have changed, to some extent, is the composition of Congress.
A decade ago, lawmakers who were seen as anti-establishment, such as Kentucky’s Thomas Massie, who supported McCarthy, don’t seem to embody anti-establishment sentiments these days. Figures like Massie have been overshadowed by personalities like Gaetz. For some Republicans in Congress, the party today is unequivocally the party of Trump.
Another notable distinction is that the size of the current House GOP majority more closely resembles that of the late 1990s and early 2000s rather than the tea party era of a decade ago. A quarter of a century ago, NBC polling revealed that Republicans were more inclined to compromise than stand firmly on their principles. When it came to negotiations with Democratic President Bill Clinton, 63% of Republicans leaned toward compromise, while only 28% preferred unwavering adherence to their principles.
Today, the House GOP majority is slender, but it comprises a party electorate willing to tolerate much in the name of principle. Thus, we find ourselves in the midst of a House GOP leadership struggle that appears more fitting for an Aaron Sorkin script than real-world politics.
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