A view shows smoke in the Gaza Strip as seen from Israel’s border with the Gaza Strip, in southern Israel October 18, 2023. REUTERS/Amir Cohen
Israeli Strategy in Gaza and Beyond: Military Actions, Regional Ambitions, and Geopolitical Dynamics
The recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, widely regarded as a mastermind behind the attack that precipitated the ongoing conflict in Gaza, represents a significant achievement for Israel. However, Israeli leadership is not solely focused on immediate military gains. According to multiple sources, the country’s strategy encompasses broader ambitions, including reshaping the regional landscape in Israel’s favor and securing its borders against future threats. This article, based on information from Western diplomats, regional officials, and other knowledgeable sources, outlines Israel’s objectives and evolving military operations in Gaza and Lebanon.
Military Objectives and U.S. Political Considerations
As U.S. elections approach, Israel is intensifying its military actions in Gaza and Lebanon, aiming to deal a decisive blow to Hamas and Hezbollah, its primary adversaries. Israeli officials are reportedly working to establish new buffer zones to secure their borders before a new U.S. administration takes office in January. With U.S. President Joe Biden expected to use Sinwar’s death to pressure Israel toward a ceasefire, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may prefer to continue military operations until a new administration, potentially more aligned with his views, takes over. Netanyahu has historically had close ties with former President Donald Trump and might calculate that a future administration could offer more favorable terms for Israel’s long-term strategic goals.
Hamas and Hezbollah: Key Targets in Israel’s Broader Conflict
Israel’s current military campaign extends beyond Gaza. It aims to push Hezbollah away from Israel’s northern border with Lebanon and thwart Iran’s influence in the region. Hamas fighters launched a deadly assault on southern Israel on October 7, killing over 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. Israel’s retaliatory offensive has led to the deaths of over 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health authorities.
Israel claims to have inflicted major losses on Hamas and Hezbollah leadership, including the elimination of top figures like Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh, military commander Mohammed Deif, and Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. In addition, Israeli forces have targeted weapons caches, tunnel networks, and communication systems.
Broader Strategic Ambitions: Buffer Zones and Resolution 1701
Israel’s ambitions stretch beyond military success in the current conflict. Sources suggest that Israel aims to establish long-term security arrangements by pushing Hezbollah forces back from its northern border into Lebanese territory. This strategy seeks to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, passed after Israel’s 2006 conflict with Hezbollah, which called for the disarmament of non-state actors in southern Lebanon and authorized a U.N. peacekeeping mission (UNIFIL).
Israeli officials argue that Hezbollah’s continued presence along the border violates this resolution, and military action is necessary to enforce it. Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has signaled a willingness to deploy Lebanese troops to the area once a ceasefire takes effect. However, Israeli officials emphasize that diplomacy alone will not resolve the security threat posed by Hezbollah.
Concerns Over UNIFIL and Civilian Displacement
The Israeli military’s operations along the Lebanese border have raised concerns over the displacement of civilians and the safety of U.N. peacekeepers. According to Lebanese officials, over 1.2 million people, primarily from the Shi’ite community, have been displaced as a result of the conflict. Furthermore, several incidents have been reported where Israeli forces fired at UNIFIL positions, causing injuries. While Israeli officials deny deliberately targeting U.N. personnel, the ongoing conflict has strained relations with international observers.
U.N. peacekeeping officials have reiterated that the failure to enforce Resolution 1701 cannot be attributed to UNIFIL, whose mandate is limited to supporting the Lebanese army. Despite calls from Israel for a more robust mandate for the peacekeeping force, there are no immediate discussions at the U.N. Security Council to alter UNIFIL’s mission.
The Situation in Gaza and Iranian Influence
In parallel to its operations in Lebanon, Israel is also advancing into northern Gaza, particularly the densely populated Jabalia refugee camp, in an effort to weaken Hamas and prevent future attacks. While there are concerns that Israel intends to clear the area of its civilian population, Israeli military officials have denied this, insisting that their goal is to dismantle Hamas’ military infrastructure.
Iran’s involvement in the conflict is another factor that weighs heavily on Israeli decision-making. Following a missile barrage from Iran on October 1, Israel has indicated that it will respond with “lethal, precise, and unexpected” measures. Israeli officials, however, have stressed that they are not seeking to open new fronts in the conflict. Iran, which backs both Hamas and Hezbollah, has repeatedly warned that it will retaliate if Israel escalates the situation further.
International Diplomatic Efforts and U.S.-Israeli Relations
The U.S., Israel’s principal ally, has supported its military operations against Iran-backed groups but has also sought to mediate improved humanitarian conditions in Gaza. Washington has called for a reduction in airstrikes on civilian areas and has encouraged ceasefire negotiations. President Biden’s administration has also pursued indirect talks with Iran, aiming to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which has caused friction with the Israeli government, which views Iran’s nuclear program as a direct threat.
Diplomatic sources suggest that Netanyahu may be calculating the political impact of a potential ceasefire on the upcoming U.S. elections. Some analysts believe that Netanyahu prefers to maintain his military posture until the elections are concluded, thereby avoiding any actions that could benefit the Biden administration or its potential successor, Vice President Kamala Harris. Netanyahu’s strategic alignment with former President Trump and his hardline approach toward Iran and the Palestinians are seen as influencing his approach to ongoing conflicts.
COMMENTS