Kamala Harris’ post-debate polling boost has been underwhelming, especially in critical battleground states, where the race against Donald Trump remains neck-and-neck. Despite dominating the debate — with 67% of voters calling her performance strong — Harris has only seen slight improvements in the polls, raising concerns about her ability to break through ahead of the 2024 election.
Modest National Gains for Harris
Harris’ debate win was clear, but it didn’t deliver the surge her campaign had hoped for. Although her national lead has grown by about 1 percentage point, recent surveys show the race remains tight. Polling averages across several key states reveal a narrow race that hasn’t shifted much, even after her debate victory.
Arizona and Georgia Remain Trump Territory
In Arizona, Trump maintains a slight edge, with polling averages showing him leading by 0.5 to 1.6 points. Despite Harris’ strong debate performance, the race has only shifted marginally since September 10. Similarly, Georgia remains competitive, with Trump holding a small lead. Harris is also struggling to attract Black voters at the same level as Biden did in 2020, further complicating her chances in the state.
Harris Finds Strength in Michigan and Pennsylvania
Michigan has become Harris’ strongest battleground state, where she now leads by 2.7 points, a slight improvement since the debate. In Pennsylvania, one of the most critical swing states, Harris has gained about a point since the debate, pushing her lead to 1.5 points. However, the competition is fierce, and both states will be pivotal in deciding the outcome of the election.
Close Races in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin
The polls in Nevada and North Carolina remain razor-thin, with both states showing near ties between the candidates. Harris leads in Nevada by only 0.8 to 1.2 points, while North Carolina is virtually deadlocked. In Wisconsin, Harris’ lead has actually shrunk slightly to 1.9 points, and this state is historically prone to polling errors, particularly in favor of Democrats.
Conclusion: A Tight Race Continues
Despite a well-received debate performance, Harris is still locked in a highly competitive race with Trump. The slight bump in national and battleground state polls underscores that this contest is far from decided. As election day approaches, both candidates will need to focus heavily on swing states where the margins remain thin.
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