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Iranian notice of attack may have dampened escalation risks

Objects are seen in the sky above Jerusalem after Iran launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in Jerusalem April 14, 2024. REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun


Turkish, Jordanian, and Iraqi authorities have asserted that Iran provided substantial advance notice before its recent drone and missile strike on Israel, purportedly enabling measures to mitigate casualties and forestall a significant escalation. Conversely, a U.S. official has refuted these claims, contending that the United States did not receive a 72-hour notice as asserted by Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian.

Most of the projectiles launched by Iran in retaliation were intercepted before reaching Israeli territory, although there were reports of casualties, including a critically injured young girl. Despite this, concerns persist regarding the potential for further escalation in the region.

Iranian officials maintain that neighboring countries, including the United States, were informed 72 hours in advance of the strikes. However, a senior U.S. official has contradicted these assertions, stating that Washington received notification only after the attacks had commenced, through intermediary channels.

Iraqi, Turkish, and Jordanian sources corroborate Iran’s provision of early warning about the impending attack, with Iraq taking precautionary measures such as closing its airspace. Jordan reports that Arab envoys were briefed by Iran regarding its intentions, albeit without specifying the timing or targets of the attack.

Despite assurances from Iran about the nature of the attack and efforts to avoid provocation, concerns persist about the potential for further escalation. President Biden has reiterated to Israel that the United States will not participate in any retaliatory actions. However, Israel remains deliberative in its response, emphasizing its intent to hold Iran accountable in a manner and timing deemed appropriate.

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