In the race for California’s Senate seat, Adam Schiff has a clear advantage, while Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Republican Steve Garvey vie for the second spot, according to a recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC). The battle for the No. 2 position in the March 5 primary will shape the nature of the November runoff, either as a competitive clash between two well-known Democrats or a more predictable outcome in the deeply blue state.
Schiff Leads, Porter Holds Strong, and Garvey Seeks Second Place
Adam Schiff, a 12-term Democrat known for his opposition to former President Donald Trump, leads the race with 24 percent of likely voters. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter follows closely at 19 percent, and Republican Steve Garvey is not far behind at 18 percent. Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee stands at 10 percent. The primary will determine whether the runoff is a fierce competition or a more one-sided affair.
Garvey’s Late Surge and Porter’s Resilience
Despite Schiff and his super PAC’s efforts to boost Garvey, the former major league player, Porter has maintained her position despite being targeted by millions of dollars in TV ads. Garvey’s support has grown by 8 percent since December, making the battle for the second spot highly competitive. Porter’s resilience, including her own ad campaign, has kept her in the race.
Strategic Ad Campaigns and Support Dynamics
The Schiff campaign employs a strategy of portraying Garvey as a conservative threat to California, aiming to increase Republican support for Garvey and hinder Porter’s chances. The wink-and-nod approach is designed to shape the dynamics of the race and determine the nature of the runoff.
Demographic and Regional Dynamics
Adam Schiff has the most support in the San Francisco Bay Area (32 percent) and Los Angeles (26 percent). In contrast, Porter’s support is highest in Orange and San Diego counties (29 percent). Demographically, Porter attracts more support from people under 45 years old, while Schiff leads among older voters.
Republicans Favor Garvey
Among Republicans, 49 percent would vote for Garvey, while independents are evenly divided between Schiff and Porter. The ongoing ad campaign targeting Garvey continues to influence Republican voters, shaping the landscape of the primary.
The PPIC survey conducted through Feb. 13 highlights the fluidity of the race as candidates seek to secure their positions and shape the narrative leading up to the March 5 primary.
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