The front cover of the Arab American News with the lead story of ‘the electoral voice of Arabs and Muslims in Michigan’ is seen in the newspaper’s office in Dearborn, Michigan U.S., September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Rebecca Cook

Arab-American and Muslim Voters Shift Support Amid Gaza Conflict

Introduction

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, Arab-American and Muslim voters, frustrated by U.S. support for Israel’s military offensive in Gaza, are moving away from Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, in favor of third-party candidate Jill Stein. This shift could impact the election results in several key battleground states.

Declining Support for Harris

A recent poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) reveals that Muslim voters in states with large Arab-American communities are increasingly backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein. In Michigan, where a significant Arab-American population resides, 40% of Muslim voters support Stein, with only 12% backing Harris. This dynamic is mirrored in other battleground states like Arizona and Wisconsin, where Harris trails Stein among Muslim voters.

2020 Election Context

In the 2020 election, President Joe Biden secured over 80% of the Muslim vote, helping him win critical states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. However, the ongoing conflict in Gaza and U.S. military aid to Israel have caused a sharp decline in Muslim support for Democrats.

Stein’s Appeal

Jill Stein’s campaign has focused heavily on the Gaza issue, advocating for an immediate ceasefire, a U.S. arms embargo on Israel, and support for student-led movements pushing universities to divest from weapons manufacturers. These positions have resonated with pro-Palestinian voters, making Stein a popular choice in Arab and Muslim communities. Her running mate, Butch Ware, a Muslim professor at the University of California, Santa Barbara, further enhances her appeal in these circles.

Stein has aggressively campaigned on the Gaza conflict, with her remarks at ArabCon in Dearborn, Michigan, solidifying her support among Arab-Americans. Her message that “Every vote cast for our campaign is a vote against genocide” has garnered attention and support, particularly in light of Israel’s actions in Gaza.

Trump’s Outreach to Arab-American Voters

At the same time, Donald Trump’s campaign has intensified its outreach to Arab-American and Muslim voters in Michigan and Arizona. Former Director of National Intelligence Richard Grenell, who is helping lead Trump’s efforts, noted that Arab-American leaders in Detroit are eager to send a message to the Democratic Party, emphasizing that their concerns should not be overlooked.

Trump’s representatives have held numerous events with Muslim voters, promising more effective peace initiatives and pledging to secure further Arab-Israeli peace agreements. This outreach could draw votes away from Harris in states where Arab and Muslim populations are politically significant.

Impact on the 2024 Election

Although Jill Stein’s 2016 run garnered only 1% of the popular vote, her candidacy in 2024 could play a decisive role in close races. States like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, where Arab-American and Muslim voters make up a substantial portion of the electorate, may see tighter margins due to the shift away from Harris.

In the 2020 election, Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes, but Trump narrowly defeated Hillary Clinton there in 2016 by fewer than 11,000 votes. In Georgia, where Biden won by just 11,779 votes, activists have launched a campaign to withhold votes from Harris unless the Biden administration halts arms shipments to Israel and demands a ceasefire in Gaza.