A satellite image shows what is believed to be a deployment site for a Russian nuclear-powered cruise missile, including 5 nuclear warhead storage bunkers (right) and bermed launch positions (lower left), in Vologda, Russia, in this handout image obtained by Reuters on August 27, 2024. Planet Labs PBC/Handout via REUTERS
Identification of Probable Deployment Site for Russia’s Burevestnik Missile
Overview
Two U.S. researchers have identified a probable deployment site in Russia for the 9M370 Burevestnik, a new nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed cruise missile. This missile, referred to as the SSC-X-9 Skyfall by NATO, has been described by President Vladimir Putin as having an “invincible” capability. The Burevestnik is claimed to have an almost unlimited range and the ability to evade U.S. missile defenses. However, some Western experts have expressed skepticism regarding these claims, questioning the missile’s strategic value and potential risks, including radiation-related hazards.
Satellite Imagery Analysis
The probable deployment site was identified through satellite images taken on July 26 by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite firm. The researchers focused on a construction project near a nuclear warhead storage facility, known as Vologda-20 or Chebsara, located approximately 475 kilometers north of Moscow. Decker Eveleth, an analyst with the CNA research and analysis organization, discovered the satellite imagery and identified what he believes are nine horizontal launch pads under construction. These pads are organized in three groups within high berms, likely to protect them from external attacks or prevent the detonation of nearby missiles in case of an accident. The berms are connected by roads to buildings that Eveleth assessed as facilities for servicing the missiles and their components, as well as to the existing complex of five nuclear warhead storage bunkers.
Expert Opinions
Eveleth has stated that the site is intended for a large, fixed missile system, specifically identifying the Burevestnik as the only such system currently under development by Russia. Jeffery Lewis, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, reviewed the imagery and concurred with Eveleth’s assessment, noting that the features observed suggest a unique and distinctive deployment related to a nuclear-powered missile.
Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists, who also reviewed the imagery, noted that the features “possibly” relate to the Burevestnik, though he did not provide a definitive assessment due to the atypical proximity of missile launchers to nuclear warhead storage in Moscow’s practice. Kristensen and other experts noted that Russia’s usual practice involves stockpiling nuclear payloads for land-based missiles far from launch sites, except for those deployed with Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). The deployment of the Burevestnik at Vologda could, however, allow for the stockpiling of nuclear-armed missiles in nearby bunkers, enabling rapid launch capabilities.
Strategic and Technical Considerations
A 2020 report by the U.S. Air Force’s National Air and Space Intelligence Center highlighted that if successfully deployed, the Burevestnik could provide Moscow with a “unique weapon with intercontinental-range capability.” Despite this, the missile’s troubled test history, coupled with its design limitations, has led to doubts among experts regarding its impact on global nuclear dynamics. The Burevestnik has a poor test record, with at least 13 known tests since 2016, of which only two were partially successful, according to the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI).
The missile’s history includes a significant incident in 2019, where a prototype crash led to an explosion during the recovery of an unshielded nuclear reactor, resulting in a radiation release. Russia’s state nuclear agency, Rosatom, confirmed the death of five staff members during this incident, with President Putin later awarding state honors to the deceased’s families.
Strategic Value and Risks
Experts, including Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based expert on Russia’s nuclear forces, and others, have questioned the strategic value of the Burevestnik, arguing that it does not add capabilities that Moscow does not already possess. Concerns have also been raised about the potential radiation risks associated with the missile’s nuclear-powered engine, which could contaminate the surrounding region in the event of a malfunction.
Critics, such as Thomas Countryman, a former State Department official, have described the Burevestnik as a dangerous and impractical weapon, drawing comparisons to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The missile’s potential to spread radioactive material along its flight path has been highlighted as a significant concern.
Strategic Arms Control Implications
The Burevestnik is not prohibited by the New START treaty, the last U.S.-Russian agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapon deployments, which is set to expire in February 2026. While the treaty includes provisions for negotiating new limits on emerging weapon systems like the Burevestnik, no such talks have been initiated. The expiration of New START, combined with Russia’s reluctance to engage in discussions amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, has raised concerns about a potential nuclear arms race.
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