A combination picture shows Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump reacting during a campaign rally held with Republican vice presidential nominee Senator JD Vance, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., August 3, 2024., and U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris reacting as she holds a campaign rally with her newly chosen vice presidential running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, U.S., August 6, 2024. REUTERS/Umit Bektas/Elizabeth Frantz/File Photo
Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in Latest Polls Ahead of November Election
Poll Findings
A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, published on Thursday, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump by 4 percentage points in the race for the U.S. presidency. The poll, conducted over eight days and concluding on Wednesday, indicates that Harris has garnered 45% of the support among registered voters, compared to Trump’s 41%. This represents a slight increase from a late July Reuters/Ipsos poll, where Harris held a narrower 1-point lead.
Demographic Support
Harris’s lead is largely supported by women and Hispanic voters. Among these groups, she holds a 49% to 36% advantage over Trump—a 13-point lead. This is a notable increase from July when she had a 9-point lead among women and a 6-point lead among Hispanic voters. In contrast, Trump continues to lead among white voters and men, though his margin among voters without a college degree has decreased to 7 points from 14 points in July.
Impact of Biden’s Withdrawal
The poll results reflect significant changes in the U.S. presidential race over the summer. President Joe Biden, who had been struggling in his campaign, withdrew on July 21 following a poor debate performance against Trump. This decision, driven by calls from fellow Democrats, has allowed Harris to gain momentum in both national polls and critical swing states.
Swing State Dynamics
While national polls provide insight into voter sentiment, the U.S. presidential election is ultimately decided by the Electoral College, with key battleground states playing a crucial role. In the seven states where the 2020 election was most closely contested—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada—Trump currently leads Harris by 45% to 43% among registered voters, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll. However, a separate Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll indicates that Harris is either leading or tied with Trump in these states.
Voter Enthusiasm
The Reuters/Ipsos poll also highlights rising enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Approximately 73% of Democratic registered voters expressed increased excitement about voting in November following Harris’s entry into the race. This contrasts with earlier sentiments, where many Biden supporters were primarily motivated by opposition to Trump. Now, 52% of Harris supporters are backing her candidacy on its merits, rather than as an anti-Trump vote.
Republican voters also display strong support for Trump, with 64% motivated by their desire to back him rather than oppose Harris. Trump maintains a significant lead over Harris in voter perception of economic management, with a 45% to 36% advantage. Conversely, Harris leads Trump on abortion policy, an issue of growing importance following the 2022 Supreme Court decision that overturned national abortion rights.
Convention Impact
The poll’s survey period overlapped with the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Harris formally accepted the party’s nomination. It remains to be seen whether the enthusiasm seen in the polls will persist as the campaign progresses.
Independent Candidate Influence
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign on August 23 while the poll was still ongoing, had secured 6% of voter support in the survey.
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