Republican presidential nominee and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures during a rally with his vice presidential running mate U.S. Senator JD Vance in St. Cloud, Minnesota, U.S., July 27, 2024. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File Photo
Eroding Lead: Trump’s Advantage on Economy and Crime Narrows
Trump’s Lead on the Economy Diminishes
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted from August 23-25, former President Donald Trump’s advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris on key issues such as the economy and crime has significantly narrowed. Trump’s approach to the economy and employment was favored by 43% of registered voters, compared to 40% who preferred Harris’s approach. This 3-point difference falls within the poll’s margin of error of 4 percentage points, indicating a near tie. In comparison, a previous poll from late July showed Trump holding an 11-point lead on economic issues, suggesting a significant shift in voter sentiment.
Tightening Race on Crime and Corruption
On issues of crime and corruption, the poll revealed that Harris and Trump are now tied, each receiving 40% support from voters. This represents a notable gain for Harris, who trailed Trump by 5 points in the July poll.
Overall Momentum for Harris
Harris appears to be gaining momentum in the race overall, as recent national polls have shown her building a small lead over Trump since she entered the presidential race on July 21, following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his campaign. The Reuters/Ipsos poll from late July indicated a 1-point lead for Harris, with 43% support compared to Trump’s 42%.
Impact of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s Endorsement of Trump
The future dynamics of the race could be influenced by independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s recent decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Trump. In a July poll, Kennedy had garnered the support of about 8% of voters, and his endorsement may shift some of that support toward Trump.
Voter Concerns and Issue Preferences
The poll highlighted that the economy remains the top issue for voters, with 26% identifying it as their primary concern. This was followed by political extremism and threats to democracy at 22%, and immigration at 13%. On the issue of extremism, Harris held a lead over Trump, with 42% of voters favoring her approach compared to 36% for Trump. However, Trump maintained an advantage on immigration, with 45% support versus Harris’ 37%.
Favorability Ratings
Neither candidate is broadly liked by the electorate. The poll showed that 59% of voters have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 52% hold an unfavorable view of Harris. Harris was viewed favorably by 47% of voters, compared to 39% for Trump.
Poll Methodology
The poll was conducted online with a sample of 1,028 adults nationwide, including 902 registered voters. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.
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