NEW YORK — President Joe Biden faces a significant challenge: a competitive race in New York, a state he won by 23 points in 2020. Elected officials, union leaders, and political consultants are increasingly worried about polls showing Biden’s declining support in a state traditionally considered a Democratic stronghold.
Alarming Polls and Warnings
Private polls in a swing New York House district, conducted in September and March, show former President Donald Trump leading Biden by 1 point, essentially a tie. Public polls over the past four months indicate Biden’s lead has shrunk to just 8 points statewide, a narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.
“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” said Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”
Biden’s campaign has largely ignored New York, assuming a straightforward win of the state’s 28 electoral votes. However, Democratic officials are urging the Biden team to invest resources in New York to boost the president’s campaign and support Democrats in several key swing districts.
Biden’s Recent Focus
Biden has concentrated his efforts on traditional battleground states, recently appearing in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. His campaign has faced criticism following a poor debate performance, which has further fueled doubts about his age and mental acuity.
In New York, Biden’s primary surrogate has been Governor Kathy Hochul, with other top Democrats like Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries expressing public support for Biden. However, behind closed doors, support for Biden is waning, with some Democratic House members advocating for a change at the top of the ticket.
The Stakes
A weak Biden campaign in New York could jeopardize down-ballot Democrats in battleground House districts in the Hudson Valley and Long Island, potentially affecting control of the House. Former Democratic New York Governor David Paterson highlighted the financial and strategic implications, stating, “The money that needs to be spent here will be subtracted from other areas he’s going to lose.”
Concerns extend beyond Biden’s age, with public polls showing a decline in support from independent voters. The June Siena College poll found Biden with an 8-point lead over Trump and revealed that only 28 percent of independent voters supported Biden’s reelection.
Democratic Response and Strategy
Democrats are emphasizing the existential threat Trump poses to democracy and focusing on issues like reproductive rights to bolster Biden’s campaign. However, some Democratic candidates are advised to distance themselves from Biden to strengthen their own campaigns.
“Fear among some Democrats has become so heightened that they are advising their party’s candidates to all but disavow Biden on the campaign trail,” said former Nassau County Executive Laura Curran.
Despite Trump’s own liabilities, including low favorability and legal issues, Democrats argue that Biden must actively campaign in New York to remind voters of his accomplishments and draw a clear contrast with Trump.
Conclusion
Biden’s declining support in New York underscores the broader challenges his campaign faces. The need for a strong presence and strategic investment in traditionally secure states like New York highlights the changing political landscape and the urgency for the Democratic Party to address these emerging battlegrounds.
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