India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shows the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) symbol during a roadshow as part of an election campaign, in Varanasi, India, May 13, 2024. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi/File Photo
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is anticipated to secure a historic third consecutive term as votes from the world’s largest election are counted on Tuesday. Exit polls project a significant victory for Modi, although these polls have a history of inaccuracy in India. If confirmed, Modi’s Hindu nationalist party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), will have succeeded in a contentious campaign marked by accusations of religious bias and threats to various population segments.
Investors are optimistic about another Modi term, expecting it to usher in further economic growth and pro-business reforms. A potential two-thirds majority in parliament could enable substantial constitutional changes, a prospect that concerns Modi’s rivals and critics.
The election, involving nearly one billion eligible voters, was conducted over seven phases from April 19 to June 1, amidst extreme summer temperatures reaching nearly 50°C (122°F) in some areas. Despite the heat, over 66% of registered voters participated, only slightly lower than the turnout in 2019, defying expectations that the election outcome was a foregone conclusion in Modi’s favor.
Modi, 73, first came to power in 2014, promising growth and change. He aims to become the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to win three consecutive terms. His campaign highlighted his achievements, including economic growth, welfare policies, national pride, and Hindu nationalism. After low voter turnout in the first phase, Modi shifted his strategy, accusing the opposition, particularly the Congress party-led alliance, of favoring India’s 200 million Muslims. Analysts suggest this shift was intended to energize the BJP’s Hindu nationalist base.
The opposition INDIA alliance, led by Rahul Gandhi’s Congress party, refuted claims of favoring Muslims and warned that Modi’s return to power could jeopardize the constitution and affirmative action policies for disadvantaged castes. The BJP dismissed these accusations. The opposition alliance focused on welfare measures, addressing unemployment, inflation, and rural distress, which surveys indicated were primary voter concerns.
TV exit polls released after the conclusion of voting suggested the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance might achieve a two-thirds majority in the 543-member lower house of parliament, with some polls indicating the BJP could surpass the 303 seats it won in 2019. This optimism propelled Indian shares to record highs on Monday, with the rupee appreciating and bond yields falling, driven by investor confidence in continued economic growth.
However, exit polls in India are known for their inconsistency. Opposition parties have criticized these polls as unscientific and unreflective of reality. Sonia Gandhi, former Congress party president and mother of Rahul Gandhi, expressed hope that the actual results would differ significantly from the exit poll predictions.
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